So the Ags can't get to the top 8 of the RPI. No shock there. But here's what Boyd says we have to do to get to the top 16, top 32 or top 45 (which is roughly where the at-large bids stop.) Note that this is all a moving target and just because we fulfill the criteria he has today, it doesn't guarantee we'll end up in a certain spot. So much depends on how others around us do, how our opponents do, etc. With each passing day, Boyd will be able to put a finer point on his analysis.

Here's the entire list:

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html


Texas A&M

Remaining: 12 home, 7 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 53
ROWP: 0.612

Top 45:

3 home wins, 7 road wins
4 home wins, 6 road wins
5 home wins, 5 road wins
6 home wins, 4 road wins
7 home wins, 3 road wins
8 home wins, 2 road wins
9 home wins, 1 road wins
10 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 32:

7 home wins, 6 road wins
8 home wins, 5 road wins
9 home wins, 4 road wins
10 home wins, 3 road wins
11 home wins, 2 road wins
12 home wins, 1 road wins

Top 16:

10 home wins, 7 road wins
11 home wins, 6 road wins
12 home wins, 4 road wins

Top 8:

No way to reach the threshold.


But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. – Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)

Luke-thanks. You are a great poster.

I have a huge passion for Aggie baseball and hate that there are so few of us that regularly post on this board and care so much.

I like that Boyd's breaks down home and road in the needs report the last few years.

With the way the bats have heated up and seeing this, I feel a lot better about our chances.

Awesome stuff. Love this time of year, lot's of opportunities to grab.

quote:

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Top 8:

No way to reach the threshold.

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Possible if we win out and win the SEC tourney? Still holding out hope for the #1 overall seed.

This lines up a little bit with what I was thinking yesterday as far as what we need to do to finish the season..

Abilene Christian (H) - win
Kentucky (H) - win 2
Rice (A) - win
Mississippi State (A) - win 1
Texas State (H) - win
LSU (H) - win 2
Arkansas (A) - win 2
Sam Houston State (H) - win
Ole Miss (H) - win 1

That would be 8 home wins and 4 road wins. Road wins are where this gets tricky, and we really need to either win that dang Rice game, win the series at MSU, or sweep Arkansas.

It's do-able, but it ain't gonna be easy. Need the bats to keep doing what they were doing last weekend.

[This message has been edited by aggiejz (edited 4/15/2014 12:40p).]

so essentially Boyd is saying that a 10-9 finish in the last 19 games will get the Ags into the postseason. And that makes sense considering the Ags have about 13 games left vs. top 50 opponents.

Just have to avoid finishing last in the West division. That's what doomed Auburn last year despite finishing with a top 40 RPI

I think the series win last week at Vandy may be enough to check the "did enough on the road" block with the selection committee. As long as the Ags pick up a win at State and another one at Arkansas. That would mean A&M finishes with 6 SEC road wins. Which would actually be one more than last season (5)

A top 32 finish would require a 13-6 finish regardless of where the wins come from. If we could pull it off, I think that we'd be a two seed and hopefully get a nice placing (easy drive from CS and/or a favorable draw).

Below is our remaining schedule and the outcomes I see as most likely (guessing the outcome or whole series and not individual games). We'd essentially have to be three games better than I think we are to reach 13 more wins. We'd also have to end our nasty habit of tanking mid-week games to inferior opposition:

-----------------------------
Abilene Christian (W)
(#19) Kentucky (W)
(#19) Kentucky (L)
(#19) Kentucky (L)
@Rice (L)
@Mississippi State (W)
@Mississippi State (W)
@Mississippi State (L)
Texas State (W)
LSU (W)
LSU (L)
LSU (L)
@Arkansas (W)
@Arkansas (W)
@Arkansas (L)
Sam Houston State (W)
Ole Miss (W)
Ole Miss (L)
Ole Miss (L)

I am too lazy to look this up, and I know I won't like the answer, but when is the last time that we won a regular season game at Rice?

We beat Rice 7-3 at their home ballpark in 2009.

We beat them last year at Minute Maid Park.

Let's Git 'er done !! Woof Woof
Looking forward to seeing old friends and some new ones this weekend at the Kentucky series.Daphne is sporting a fresh mohawk and looking forward to the concessions stand! BTHO kentucky

quote:

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Top 16:

10 home wins, 7 road wins
11 home wins, 6 road wins
12 home wins, 4 road wins

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Is there an error there? Why would you only need 16 wins when the majority come at home, but need 17 wins when the majority of them come on the road.

Probably it should be 12 home wins, 5 road wins?

Sounds silly, but probably rounding error. The RPI goes out to 3, sometimes 4 or 5, decimal places. This is a very in exact science that will become more precise as we get closer to season's end.