Ags are at #65 this morning and for all intents and purposes eliminated from at-large regional selection consideration. Only going undefeated in the mid-week the rest of the way...which includes winning at Rice...and winning/sweeping the rest of our SEC series will get us in. A couple of wins at the SEC tourney might be required as well.

If interested, can someone else do the big list today? I'm locked down for a while.

How are they eliminated? 15 games left, they need to win some combination of 8 games according to the Boyd's "needs" write up to get in the Top 45.

Unless "intents and purposes" means you assume they're literally incapable of it.

here's the link at top 20:

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

1. Florida
2. Florida State
3. Houston
4. Indiana
5. Virginia
6. South Carolina
7. Texas
8. Ole Miss
9. Rice
10. Cal Poly
11. Kentucky
12. Tech
13. LSU
14. ULL
15. Washington
16. Vandy
17. Alabama
18. TCU
19. Maryland
20. Liberty
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25. Tennessee
42. State
49. Georgia
57. Auburn
65. A&M
51. Arkansas

adding salt to the wound for this season...

5 other programs in the state (UH, Rice, t.u., Tech, TCU) are in great position to be a national seed and/or regional host with a good finish to the season. At this point I'd expect at least 2 to get national seeds and a third to host

if I had to pick national seeds today:

SEC ---> Florida & Bama
ACC ---> FSU & Virginia
Pac-12 --> Washington
Big West --> Cal Poly
Big 12 --> t.u. or TCU

and the last spot between UH and Rice

UH is not getting a national seed as they got swept by Louisville.

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How are they eliminated? 15 games left, they need to win some combination of 8 games according to the Boyd's "needs" write up to get in the Top 45.

Unless "intents and purposes" means you assume they're literally incapable of it.

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I don't think 45 would be good enough for an SEC team that finishes so close to the bottom. The SEC teams that the committee agonizes over usually have RPIs in the 30s.

You have to remember that the largest factor in RPI is your own winning percentage, and as each game goes by, our ability to change that factor diminishes.

It's been brutal but we are nowhere near eliminated. I don't think this team has it in it to do it, but 3-0 on Tuesdays, 6-6 in the SEC, and a decent showing at the SEC tourney, and I'd say we'd probably make it.

I thought last year we ascertained that Auburn was above 45 and didn't get in just because they were last in our division. That's also something we could avoid.

So we aren't eliminated by all practical means, it will just be difficult based on our upcoming competition to get in.

RPI of teams we play:

Ole Miss: 8
Rice: 9
Texas State: 89
Sam Houston: 59
Arkansas: 51
LSU: 13
Miss St: 42


Only one team below us in RPI. The opportunities are there.

all of these mid-major teams near the top of the RPI: UH, Indiana, Rice, Cal Poly, (and formerly ULL) create a quandary for the committee.

how many national seeds do you give to these teams? (and as a result don't give to the SEC, ACC, Pac-12, and Big 12). I think there is room for 2 of them.

another wildcard is Oklahoma State in 1st place in the Big 12 with an RPI of 54. That could cost Tech or TCU a host spot

as of this morning according to Warren Nolan's numbers, A&M is 8-9 vs. the top 50. That is not bad, decent. Really need a win over Rice tomorrow night

2-1 ooc and 6-6 in sec will get us in. We need to find a winning rotation.

Rice game is MASSIVE!

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2-1 ooc and 6-6 in sec will get us in.

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I'm not entirely convinced of this at all. We'd probably be floating somewhere around the mid 40's in RPI if that happens, and I would not feel all that confident about getting in at that rate.

We were 22-22 last year after 2 losses at Bama.

Lots of baseball to be played

dermdoc-Wow, thanks for the reminder!

2-1, 6-6 would put us squarely on the bubble, which I would almost take at this point.

And we were under .500 in the SEC at the end of last season.

Let it play out then bring out the pitchforks

Hopefully that will not be necessary.

BTHO rice!

By the way, why did we only raise four spots in the RPI after Sunday's win?

[This message has been edited by TempleAg97 (edited 4/21/2014 12:21p).]

Home wins aren't valued nearly as much as road wins

I know the new RPI formula greatly values road wins over home wins (dang you northern teams!) but I would have thought a win over a top 10 team would be worth more than four spots, even at home.

that's a big part of the uphill battle the Ags face. Must have road wins. Gotta get 2 this week at a minimum

one note about comparisons to last year...

A&M finished with the #10 SoS in the country in 2013

this year Ags currently at #45 according to Warren Nolan

the non-conference schedule is the primary reason why. No Fullerton or UNC this season

We all (even the national pundits) thought Fresno was really good this year . That sweep is still killing us!

I think we're eliminated because I don't believe this team and coaching staff is capable of getting us where we need to be for an at-large bid. I understand the mathematics are in place for us to do so...I just don't think the talent and coaching are in place to pull it off.

The bats do seem to be warming up a bit... But only on Sunday.

Is there any way we can play triple-headers from here out?

Luke-that's something different than having no chance. The only thing going for us is that many times in years past we looked dead in the water and got it done somehow. Hoping for that again. Times running out.

another part of the equation...the Ags have to climb over a few of their conference mates.

10 teams is the maximum number the SEC would get into the field. Missouri is out. And Auburn too.

So the Ags have to build a better postseason resume than 2 of these 4 teams:

Arkansas, State, Tennessee, and Georgia

Series wins in Fayetteville and Starkville would probably do that. Too late to do anything about Georgia. Have to hope UGA and Tenn slide down the RPI

Or win the tournament.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-hDl6OALv4

Sincerely,

Jake Taylor






But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. – Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)

If anyone is interested in this week's list, here it is:

1. Florida (2-1)
3. Houston (0-1)
6. South Carolina
8. Mississippi (play on 5/15-17)
9. Rice (play on 4/22)
11. Kentucky (1-2)
13. LSU (play on 5/2-4)
16. Vanderbilt (2-1)
17. Alabama (1-2)
25. Tennessee
42. Mississippi State (play on 4/24-26)
48. Columbia (1-0)
49. Georgia (1-2)
51. Arkansas (play on 5/9-11)
57. Auburn (1-2)
59. Sam Houston State (0-1, play again on 5/13)
65. Texas A&M
76. Fresno State (0-3)
89. Texas State (play on 4/29)
121. Missouri
136. Sacramento State (2-1)
152. Stephen F. Austin (1-0)
155. UT-Arlington (1-0)
186. Houston Baptist (1-0)
222. UT-Pan American (2-0)
223. Northeastern (3-0)
232. Louisiana Tech (2-1)
243. Texas Southern (1-0)
251. Abilene Christian (1-0)
293. Prairie View A&M (1-0)



Against today's RPI, we are:

2-2 vs. Top 10...4 games remain

6-7 vs. #11-50...6 games remain

1-6 vs. #51-100 (ouch)...5 games remain

4-1 vs. #101-200...0 games remain

10-1 vs. #200+...0 games remain

Like I said, mathematically we could still get to where we need to be for an at-large bid. All of our remaining games are against Top 100 teams...but the problem is we're only 9-15 (.375) against teams in that category. Holding serve the rest of the year and going 5-10 or 6-9 down the stretch won't cut it. I haven't looked at the RPI Needs Report, but my guess is we need to go about 11-4 (maaaaaybe 10-5) to end the regular season to have a realistic chance of an at-large bid. Sadly, I just don't see it happening this year. Hope I'm wrong.




But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. – Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)

RPI report says 8-7 to be top 45 RPI so 9-6 would do it and 8-7 would put us on the bubble if everything fell right.

OK then...wouldn't have guessed we'd have that much leeway, even with a remaining scheduled loaded with top tier teams.

Since Boyd started publishing RPI this year, we hit a high of #41, which was right after the Fresno State series and a low of #80 after the Alabama series. We're currently at #65. Realistically speaking, I just don't see a big surge over the final few weeks of the season. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but this team (on the surface) doesn't seem to have the "it" factor making them capable of putting together a solid 4-week run like some of RC's past teams have done. RC has always had that one stud, bulldog pitcher to get the team back on track. We don't have that this year...and that's what scares me the most.





But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. – Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)

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RPI report says 8-7 to be top 45 RPI so 9-6 would do it and 8-7 would put us on the bubble if everything fell right.

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45 is not going to be high enough for an SEC straggler with a terrible out of conference record. If we were in the Big XII or some other middling conference, we might get the benefit of the doubt at 45, but, in the SEC, it's not unheard of to see teams in the 30s get shut out. I think that if this team was the last one in the SEC tournament, did nothing at Hoover, and ended up with an RPI of 40 or higher, they wouldn't stand a chance of getting an at large bid.

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I think we're eliminated because I don't believe this team and coaching staff is capable of getting us where we need to be for an at-large bid. I understand the mathematics are in place for us to do so...I just don't think the talent and coaching are in place to pull it off.

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I don't think we're a middle-of-the-pack SEC team AT BEST as long as we have Childress.

okay, we'll see how much one top 10 road win can boost a team in the RPI