Aggie Volleyball - The Morrison Edition - Page 24

Swollen Thumb

10:59a, 10/30/23

drumbeat10 said:
Setting from Niza looked really off today as well, and Lednicky only gets to hit off her.

Also Tennessee has an all American lefty oppo they practice against every day so they're a bit more used to defending a lefty than some other teams that don't have one or don't have a good one.

Setting hasn't looked sharp for a while. I wouldn't mind trying a 5-1 with Manning and set the pipe, middle, slides, stack 5's.....something....anything. We just look way too predictable on offense and it doesn't seem the pins are swinging with as much confidence as they were earlier in the season.

And the serve errors...woof. I don't care how aggressive you "want" to be, 15 service errors is ridiculous. Such a momentum killer. I get the strategy if you have a team that can execute it, but that's just not a strength of this particular team. You know what is....blocking. So why not keep the ball in play and rely on our block for sideouts rather than giving away points on a strategy we can't execute?

Ag4eva95

11:09a, 10/30/23

In reply to Swollen Thumb

Im a fan of this. Think Manning definitely deserves a chance to run the offense. Nina has been bad for the last 8 or so matches and maybe average before that.

Next year, the only people who have guaranteed playing time is Ledinecky, Ifenna, Muoneke, and maybe Manning. We need setters and liberos in the worst way.

Also, what's the point of having 6 rotation OH in Meuth and Muoneke if you don't try to run some back row attacks? I haven't seen one been attmepted

kwammer

11:36a, 10/30/23

In reply to Ag4eva95

back row sets would be nice, if either is effective at hitting them.
obviously, with substitution rules as they are, you have to play a few all around.

Sargie

12:49p, 10/30/23

Tennessee was a tough loss, mostly because we could never seem to get the lead and every time we challenged, we seemed to make a mistake or two or three to hand them the set. We were competitive for stretches but just couldn't match their consistency and, likely, self belief.

With Tennessee and to a lesser extent Arkansas, it is really important to recognize that these are Franken-teams built through the COVID year exception and the transfer portal. tu winning the natty last year with a team of grads and grad transfers, most of whom would've been in Europe playing professionally in normal times, was the height of the silliness. You see Wiscy trying to replicate that formula this year. Thankfully college sports only have one more year of the insanity.

Our freshmen, Manning, Muoneke, and Pearson were all in EIGHTH GRADE when the SEVEN grad students on Tennessee's roster (five of whom are transfers!) started playing college volleyball as freshmen. It's just dumb but it is the game we have to play this year and next.

I'm sure it presented a strategic conundrum to the staff - sell out this year and next chasing quick success with one or two year rentals or build selectively through the portal, concentrating on '25 with their first recruiting class supported by a team of then-vets the staff has developed through these two years. Maybe out of necessity given the roster situation they inherited, I think their path is pretty clear.

Morrison has hinted several times that the goal for this team this season was to make the tournament. We are still in a really good position to do that if we hold serve against Bama twice and Ole Miss. Beating Auburn on Sunday and getting revenge on Mizzou next week would solidify the tourney spot and help our seeding. Anything we take from Tenn at home or KY on the road would be gravy.

To me, this means we should celebrate the teams successes, notice their growth, and maybe recognize that the early run of success might've raised our expectations too high. Morrison has said that the team can play with anyone, but still has to learn to do that consistently. That comes from reps in the practice gym and in matches like they've played the last two weeks. How teams respond to getting beat has a lot to do with who they'll become.

Ag4eva95

1:43p, 10/30/23

In reply to kwammer

Muoneke hit alot from the back row in highschool, I know she is very much capable of if. Would love to see some chances to set her and see what she can do! Especially when others are struggling

Swollen Thumb

2:40p, 10/30/23

In reply to Sargie

Sargie said:
Tennessee was a tough loss, mostly because we could never seem to get the lead and every time we challenged, we seemed to make a mistake or two or three to hand them the set. We were competitive for stretches but just couldn't match their consistency and, likely, self belief.

With Tennessee and to a lesser extent Arkansas, it is really important to recognize that these are Franken-teams built through the COVID year exception and the transfer portal. tu winning the natty last year with a team of grads and grad transfers, most of whom would've been in Europe playing professionally in normal times, was the height of the silliness. You see Wiscy trying to replicate that formula this year. Thankfully college sports only have one more year of the insanity.

Our freshmen, Manning, Muoneke, and Pearson were all in EIGHTH GRADE when the SEVEN grad students on Tennessee's roster (five of whom are transfers!) started playing college volleyball as freshmen. It's just dumb but it is the game we have to play this year and next.

I'm sure it presented a strategic conundrum to the staff - sell out this year and next chasing quick success with one or two year rentals or build selectively through the portal, concentrating on '25 with their first recruiting class supported by a team of then-vets the staff has developed through these two years. Maybe out of necessity given the roster situation they inherited, I think their path is pretty clear.

Morrison has hinted several times that the goal for this team this season was to make the tournament. We are still in a really good position to do that if we hold serve against Bama twice and Ole Miss. Beating Auburn on Sunday and getting revenge on Mizzou next week would solidify the tourney spot and help our seeding. Anything we take from Tenn at home or KY on the road would be gravy.

To me, this means we should celebrate the teams successes, notice their growth, and maybe recognize that the early run of success might've raised our expectations too high. Morrison has said that the team can play with anyone, but still has to learn to do that consistently. That comes from reps in the practice gym and in matches like they've played the last two weeks. How teams respond to getting beat has a lot to do with who they'll become.

This is such a good post, thank you! Really appreciate the context...the bolded part is insane and something I hadn't really put together...just crazy to think about.

I'm 100% on board with Morrison...love his long-term approach to building the program and think he will have us competing at a high-level sooner rather than later. Getting to the upper half of the league and into the tourney in year 1 really would be a very good accomplishment for this team and staff that points to a bright future.

I know Morrison has a long-term vision of the style and system he wants to run, and I have no doubt he will succeed once he is able to recruit to it. But until you have the players that fit a specific system, you have to tailor the system to fit your players. That's been my only real question for this year because, with the current roster, it just sometimes looks like we are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Perhaps just growing pains!

drumbeat10

4:09p, 10/30/23

Agreed, great post and perspective Sargie!

And the 2025 recruiting class is looking really good so far so the future is definitely looking bright for this program.

Sargie

4:10p, 10/30/23

Just to emphasize the end of season point, RPI futures just came out and predicts we will finish with an RPI of 26 with a record of 18-10. We are 14-7 now so need to finish 4-3. We need to beat Bama x 2, Ole Miss at home, and one of Auburn at home or Mizzou away. Tenn at home and KY on the road gets bonus points.

Our top 45 probability did drop to 99.8% from 100% though! If we lose out and other bad stuff happens, that's probably the scenarios in the simulations that create the .2% chance of no dance.

BiochemAg97

11:53p, 10/30/23

In reply to Swollen Thumb

Swollen Thumb said:
drumbeat10 said:
Setting from Niza looked really off today as well, and Lednicky only gets to hit off her.

Also Tennessee has an all American lefty oppo they practice against every day so they're a bit more used to defending a lefty than some other teams that don't have one or don't have a good one.
Setting hasn't looked sharp for a while. I wouldn't mind trying a 5-1 with Manning and set the pipe, middle, slides, stack 5's.....something....anything. We just look way too predictable on offense and it doesn't seem the pins are swinging with as much confidence as they were earlier in the season.

And the serve errors...woof. I don't care how aggressive you "want" to be, 15 service errors is ridiculous. Such a momentum killer. I get the strategy if you have a team that can execute it, but that's just not a strength of this particular team. You know what is....blocking. So why not keep the ball in play and rely on our block for sideouts rather than giving away points on a strategy we can't execute?

I agree the serve errors are frustrating. I understand what Jamie is wanting to do, but we are having a hard time executing. On the other hand, if you look at pro men's vball, they are very aggressive with the serves and have something like a 30% serve error rate.

I think the real telling stat is not the serve errors but the ratio of serve errors to aces. Not good on that metric either, but if we were getting 15 aces to go along with the 15 errors, it would be a different story.

BiochemAg97

12:03a, 10/31/23

In reply to Swollen Thumb

Swollen Thumb said:
Sargie said:
Tennessee was a tough loss, mostly because we could never seem to get the lead and every time we challenged, we seemed to make a mistake or two or three to hand them the set. We were competitive for stretches but just couldn't match their consistency and, likely, self belief.

With Tennessee and to a lesser extent Arkansas, it is really important to recognize that these are Franken-teams built through the COVID year exception and the transfer portal. tu winning the natty last year with a team of grads and grad transfers, most of whom would've been in Europe playing professionally in normal times, was the height of the silliness. You see Wiscy trying to replicate that formula this year. Thankfully college sports only have one more year of the insanity.

Our freshmen, Manning, Muoneke, and Pearson were all in EIGHTH GRADE when the SEVEN grad students on Tennessee's roster (five of whom are transfers!) started playing college volleyball as freshmen. It's just dumb but it is the game we have to play this year and next.

I'm sure it presented a strategic conundrum to the staff - sell out this year and next chasing quick success with one or two year rentals or build selectively through the portal, concentrating on '25 with their first recruiting class supported by a team of then-vets the staff has developed through these two years. Maybe out of necessity given the roster situation they inherited, I think their path is pretty clear.

Morrison has hinted several times that the goal for this team this season was to make the tournament. We are still in a really good position to do that if we hold serve against Bama twice and Ole Miss. Beating Auburn on Sunday and getting revenge on Mizzou next week would solidify the tourney spot and help our seeding. Anything we take from Tenn at home or KY on the road would be gravy.

To me, this means we should celebrate the teams successes, notice their growth, and maybe recognize that the early run of success might've raised our expectations too high. Morrison has said that the team can play with anyone, but still has to learn to do that consistently. That comes from reps in the practice gym and in matches like they've played the last two weeks. How teams respond to getting beat has a lot to do with who they'll become.
This is such a good post, thank you! Really appreciate the context...the bolded part is insane and something I hadn't really put together...just crazy to think about.

I'm 100% on board with Morrison...love his long-term approach to building the program and think he will have us competing at a high-level sooner rather than later. Getting to the upper half of the league and into the tourney in year 1 really would be a very good accomplishment for this team and staff that points to a bright future.

I know Morrison has a long-term vision of the style and system he wants to run, and I have no doubt he will succeed once he is able to recruit to it. But until you have the players that fit a specific system, you have to tailor the system to fit your players. That's been my only real question for this year because, with the current roster, it just sometimes looks like we are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Perhaps just growing pains!

I suspect with the youth on the team, it is really about developing those players in the system and style.

There are several areas where we are doing the harder thing, like read blocking and the aggressive serves. There are going to be some growing pains, but long term we are going to be better for it.

flintdragon

11:17a, 10/31/23

about the aggressive serves, I haven't been to a game in person yet but are our serves really all that aggressive? Or is it more spot serving to tough locations? Looks pretty normal to me.

Wicked Good Ag

12:12p, 10/31/23

They are not aggressive serves. Manning is the most aggressive with a flat hard serve. Meuth can be with her top spin. Other than that they are normal serves IMO

Sargie

2:22p, 10/31/23

After listening to and commenting on the serving topic, I tried to do some research to educate myself. I'm no expert by any stretch but I perhaps this is a way to think about it.

Somewhere in a presser/interview/podcast I heard Morrison describe a good serve as "Fleen" (Flean?). Google says that means flat (hard with no arc) and clean (no spin.) That obviously applies to float serves, not topspins like Meuth occasionally uses. So if Fleen is the standard, a good serve would have pace, very little arc, and no spin so that the ball just clears the net and knuckles as it drops approaching the passer. I assume the ability to serve Fleen to a specific zone or seam is also part of the puzzle.

At this level with the pace good servers put on the ball, there is very little margin for error vertically. If you stretch a rope across the net from antenna to antenna, there is probably an 18 inch window that a Fleen serve can pass through between the tape and the rope to land in bounds. (If, as our home announcers sometimes argue, a server never missed short in the tape because that is a "bad miss", they would adjust their aim point up causing them to miss many more long - the optimal target through that net/rope channel to center the landing zone in the court is going to have some serves catch the tape given the natural variance of the athletic movement, the float, etc. It is true that it doesn't pressure the defense but the alternative would be lower expected points won due to more misses in total, which I'm sure is greater than the occasional out ball that the receiving team chooses to pass, which I think is their argument.)

In terms of aggression of serves, I'm sure this math is wrong specifically but hopefully directionally correct. The best teams in the country, those that we would hope to face in the tournament, side out somewhere between 60% and 70%. I take that to mean that every time we serve, our expected point value before hitting the ball is something like .35. If we serve a soft arcing ball fearing the service error and the team passes it as if it were a free ball running perfectly in system, my guess is their side out percentage jumps into the 70% range thus having an expected value for the server maybe around .25 On the other hand, if we serve tough and they pass a 1 ball or a low 2 ball, their sideout percentage could drop below 50%, giving us the advantage.

Using those figures, on a normal serve we therefore expect to lose .65ish points. An ace would gain .65 points versus expectation; an error loses .35 points. Doesn't that imply that an ace is almost twice as valuable as an error versus a very good team? Even if .65/.35 isn't correct, that's still a big difference from .50/.50 where an error and ace have the same offsetting value. My point is that even though the best servers in the country have more aces than errors, as a team you can have more errors than aces and still have the optimal strategy be to serve aggressively to maximize expected points.

I think that is the rationale. It's an altogether different question about whether we do that consistently or not and why. And to quantify what everyone is probably seeing with their eyes, this chart just hit the interwebs. I've heard Morrison say he is comfortable with a 10% error rate - my guess is that he'd like a higher ace rate and a little lower error rate since we are over double errors to aces today.

Wicked Good Ag

4:36p, 10/31/23

With our blocking ability I don't care about aces near as much as I care about options for the opponent offense in serve receive.
And I honestly think the aces to errors is extremely dated as a main serving stat.

That said our serving error rate isn't 10% in most games.

Sargie

5:19p, 10/31/23

Totally agree that there are much better stats for serving than we have access to. We do spend a lot of time here talking about errors as opposed to opponent pass quality and other things so I thought I'd take a shot at the "why" of serving aggressively and illustrate that it isn't really a choice - it is a skill the team and staff have to continue to build because math.

Swollen Thumb

10:30p, 10/31/23

In reply to Sargie

Sargie said:
Totally agree that there are much better stats for serving than we have access to. We do spend a lot of time here talking about errors as opposed to opponent pass quality and other things so I thought I'd take a shot at the "why" of serving aggressively and illustrate that it isn't really a choice - it is a skill the team and staff have to continue to build because math.

Until we recruit "flean" servers, math is not on our side.

But your post above is excellent. Agree with your logic. It's just that the math is different for a team who aren't strong servers and extremely inconsistent. It's not as hard to see as you are trying to make it.

Gap

7:36p, 11/3/23

We are back at Reed on this Friday night against Alabama.

Ags have won the 1st 2 sets: 25-20 and 25-15.

Gap

8:07p, 11/3/23

Ags close out Bama winning the third set 25-18

Gap

8:14p, 11/3/23

Gotta add that the volleyball DJ is the best we have at any of our sports venues. He does a great job keeping the crowd in it.

flintdragon

10:36p, 11/3/23

Nice bounce back game before Auburn.

I'm looking to bring my family for either the Auburn or Tenn game. It looks like the amount of reserved seats is very few compared to last year. Last season, we got like 2nd row for the Kentucky game the day before the game. Now nothing available close.

BiochemAg97

1:31a, 11/4/23

In reply to Gap

Gap said:
Gotta add that the volleyball DJ is the best we have at any of our sports venues. He does a great job keeping the crowd in it.

Did a fantastic job stopping the music for BTHO Bama and then picking it back up again.

Swollen Thumb

9:55a, 11/4/23

Good win. Thought they looked much sharper and dominated Bama. Let's keep it going on Sunday!!

Wicked Good Ag

10:18p, 11/4/23

Tomorrow may be the most pivotal match for rest of season. If we can win both this weekend and steal one of the next three after we will be in good shape to win 2 of the final three on the SEC schedule

Gap

3:32p, 11/5/23

Ags win the opening set at Reed today against Auburn 25-21

Gap

4:06p, 11/5/23

Set 2 to Auburn 19-25.

Ag4eva95

4:15p, 11/5/23

Nina went down, hope she can get back into action. She was having a decent day!

Gap

4:17p, 11/5/23

Even at 7 in the 3rd.

We just lost out starting setter Nisa Buzlutepe to what to me looked like a significant shoulder injury of some kind. I hope I'm wrong about the severity.

Gap

4:29p, 11/5/23

Buzlutepe back out in sweats and her arm in a sling.

Orome

4:31p, 11/5/23

Why is Logan not playing??

Ag4eva95

4:32p, 11/5/23

In reply to Orome

Because they had to make a medical sub and it took Ledinecky out of this set. She will be back next set

Ag4eva95

4:32p, 11/5/23

In reply to Gap

Ah ****. That's not good

Orome

4:32p, 11/5/23

In reply to Ag4eva95

Ag4eva95 said:
Because they had to make a medical sub and it took Ledinecky out of this set. She will be back next set

Ah gotcha thanks!

Ag4eva95

4:34p, 11/5/23

This is the most I've seen this team fight! Hate that they have to, but I love this fight!!!

Gap

4:37p, 11/5/23

In reply to Orome

Orome said:
Why is Logan not playing??

I'm trying to figure this out too. She was having a great day. Nisa is her setter. We have been playing weird rotations since the injury but it is working.

Ags win set 3 25-23. Perhaps the grittiest set win of the year.

Ag4eva95

4:39p, 11/5/23

In reply to Gap

Because Ledinecky/Manning were subbing for eachother, when Manning came back in because Nisa went out, that means Logan could not come back in and sub for someone different.

Nisa/Lupyo
Manning/Ledinecky

These are the subs. You can not sub Ledinecky for Lupyo because the set already started. She will get back into play this set because it starts over and you can have a new lineup.

It's an illegal substitution and we'd lose the point. They would call an out of rotation.