***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
6,937,936 Views | 45765 Replies
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Rossticus
12:10a, 2/24/22
Admittedly, there's a risk in any course we follow, but every lesson of history tells us that the greater risk lies in appeasement, and this is the specter our well-meaning liberal friends refuse to face, that their policy of accommodation is appeasement, and it gives no choice between peace and war, only between fight or surrender. If we continue to back and retreat, eventually we have to face the final demand, the ultimatum.
TX04Aggie
12:11a, 2/24/22
In reply to unmade bed
Thanks. News isn't covering the other fronts closely at the moment so wasnt sure how intense any activity on the puppet borders were.
Rossticus
12:11a, 2/24/22
In reply to Kenneth_2003
I guess it's always brilliant when you do something so heinous that nobody remotely expects it.
Admittedly, there's a risk in any course we follow, but every lesson of history tells us that the greater risk lies in appeasement, and this is the specter our well-meaning liberal friends refuse to face, that their policy of accommodation is appeasement, and it gives no choice between peace and war, only between fight or surrender. If we continue to back and retreat, eventually we have to face the final demand, the ultimatum.
jabberwalkie09
12:12a, 2/24/22
In reply to TX04Aggie
TX04Aggie said:

Will there be a real incursion into Ukraine from the Belarus border as well, since they are a puppet of Russia?

Border video already been played of Russian IFV's rolling through.
Rapier108
12:12a, 2/24/22
In reply to Eliminatus
Eliminatus said:

W said:

from a military history standpoint...

the amphibious assault of Odessa might be a first.

(I think the Germans and Romanians took the city by land during WWII)
Not to mention the fact a large scale amphibious assault took place at all. (If it actually did). When was the last time that happened? Korea?
Depends on how one defines "large scale." On the order of anything in WWII where we landed entire army groups in 1-3 days, nope.

Russian does not have a massive amphibious component to its navy. They have enough to land some troops, but not an entire army, especially in only an hour or two.
TRM
12:12a, 2/24/22
In reply to Eliminatus
Eliminatus said:

W said:

from a military history standpoint...

the amphibious assault of Odessa might be a first.

(I think the Germans and Romanians took the city by land during WWII)
Not to mention the fact a large scale amphibious assault took place at all. (If it actually did). When was the last time that happened? Korea?
Ukrainian Defense Minister said Odessa hasn't fallen. I haven't seen what type of assault is taking place. Seems like some Russian disinformation out there.
atmtws
12:13a, 2/24/22
We also need to slap HEAVY sanctions/tariffs on China again....we know China and Putin have been plotting this together. Put sanctions/tariffs on China first thing tomorrow, and tell Xi, YOU think you're so badass, and want a seat at the world table, deal with Russia yourself. Lets see what you got. Until then, NATO/Western nations are slapping you with tariffs and sanctions. Cut. Them. Off. Rip off the bandaid. Make this a China problem. They started it/sped it up.

(I'm tipsy, so be nice)
Eliminatus
12:13a, 2/24/22
In reply to Rossticus
Rossticus said:


For those wondering, I looked it up earlier after Ukrainian ambo invoked it.

Quote:

Article 4

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm

He did it in regard to Russia and called for the stepping down of it as the chair of the Security Council. Wonder what validity it has according to the wording of the Article.

Either way, it takes time to stir NATO into anything. We shall see
W
12:13a, 2/24/22
In reply to Eliminatus
Inchon in 1950 is probably the most famous one since the end of WWII..

there have been smaller ones in the years since
2wealfth Man
12:14a, 2/24/22
In reply to Rapier108
Rapier108 said:

Eliminatus said:

W said:

from a military history standpoint...

the amphibious assault of Odessa might be a first.

(I think the Germans and Romanians took the city by land during WWII)
Not to mention the fact a large scale amphibious assault took place at all. (If it actually did). When was the last time that happened? Korea?
Depends on how one defines "large scale." On the order of anything in WWII where we landed entire army groups in 1-3 days, nope.

Russian does not have a massive amphibious component to its navy. They have enough to land some troops, but not an entire army, especially in only an hour or two.
they just need to apply some pressure from the south; the main thrust is coming across the border with Belarus from the north.
unmade bed
12:15a, 2/24/22
In reply to TRM
TRM said:

Eliminatus said:

W said:

from a military history standpoint...

the amphibious assault of Odessa might be a first.

(I think the Germans and Romanians took the city by land during WWII)
Not to mention the fact a large scale amphibious assault took place at all. (If it actually did). When was the last time that happened? Korea?
Ukrainian Defense Minister said Odessa hasn't fallen. I haven't seen what type of assault is taking place. Seems like some Russian disinformation out there.


I'm also seeing denials of any kind of large scale amphibious assault on Odessa but who the hell knows what to believe at this point.
Rapier108
12:16a, 2/24/22
Live cameras from Odessa show people walking around like nothing is happening. Some carrying bags of groceries, others going along like a normal day.
jabberwalkie09
12:17a, 2/24/22
In reply to Rapier108
Rapier108 said:

Live cameras from Odessa show people walking around like nothing is happening. Some carrying bags of groceries, others going along like a normal day.

Saw something that Ukrainian Government said it was a false report.
whytho987654
12:17a, 2/24/22
In reply to Kenneth_2003
Kenneth_2003 said:

More sanctions... Europe is critically short on natural resources and energy needed to serve their people much less fight a war and fuel a war machine.

Russia will certainly weaponize those oil and gas pipelines if NATO gets involved.

Europe has bowed to the green altar, North Africa? Middle East? Sub Saharran? The US? where will Europe get the energy/fuel to simply survive much less fight if they come to defense of Ukraine?

Brilliant move by Putin, and should be a surprise to no one
More and more proof that utopian ideas like "green energy" fall flat on their face
W
12:17a, 2/24/22
In reply to TX04Aggie
TX04Aggie said:

Will there be a real incursion into Ukraine from the Belarus border as well, since they are a puppet of Russia?
this is a real killer for Ukraine --- getting attacked on 2 sides.

similar to Poland in 1939. Too much border to defend
Forty Twice
12:18a, 2/24/22
Russia should take minimal territory or else make sure they win the Slovakian and Hungarian border regions. OTOH US/UK wish to prevent Eurasian integration and really want to keep this region. I think Joe Biden's minor incursion means anything except for the Slovak / Hungarian border regions. Pipeline-istan.
TX04Aggie
12:20a, 2/24/22
In reply to W
Agreed. Very concerning to have a multi front attack.
unmade bed
12:20a, 2/24/22
In reply to Rapier108
Rapier108 said:

Live cameras from Odessa show people walking around like nothing is happening. Some carrying bags of groceries, others going along like a normal day.


Yeah I just went and looked up several supposed live webcams and things look somewhat normal there.
Rapier108
12:21a, 2/24/22
In reply to W
W said:

TX04Aggie said:

Will there be a real incursion into Ukraine from the Belarus border as well, since they are a puppet of Russia?
this is a real killer for Ukraine --- getting attacked on 2 sides.

similar to Poland in 1939. Too much border to defend
Well, Poland had an army which wasn't prepared to fight the First World War, much less the second. They still relied on cavalry. The Germans or Russians would have steamrolled them alone, just would have taken a little longer.
TRADUCTOR
12:22a, 2/24/22
In reply to Rossticus
Rossticus said:




All the 50+ years of money, meetings, infrastructure, for exactly this threat. Tweet says Article 4 is a strongly worded letter and scary serious sanctions is what I interpret.
Agthatbuilds
12:24a, 2/24/22
2wealfth Man
12:25a, 2/24/22
good summary of the forcesion the Black Sea and their potential

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/massive-russian-navy-armada-moves-into-place-off-ukraine/
jabberwalkie09
12:26a, 2/24/22
Seeing more videos of Su's and Ka-52's in the eastern part of Ukraine. With the claims of downing Russian aircraft, the air campaign has begun in earnest.
Eliminatus
12:28a, 2/24/22
In reply to W
W said:

TX04Aggie said:

Will there be a real incursion into Ukraine from the Belarus border as well, since they are a puppet of Russia?
this is a real killer for Ukraine --- getting attacked on 2 sides.

similar to Poland in 1939. Too much border to defend
Pretty much worst case for them. Ukraine is NOT a strong military country. Pride can only go so far. They have a mash of old Soviet equipment and more modern Russian stuff with Western small arms sprinkled in. One area they definitely lack comparatively is military comms and intel. Which Russia is absolutely attacking first.

On paper from what I have seen, this is a lost war before it began. Of course, that is just wargaming on paper. Take the fight to the city streets with an armed and determined populace and this drags out and gets dirty. Again, I think this is the only real option Ukraine has really. With the attacks all over pinning down the regular forces, Russia should have the manpower and mobility to dictate the fight in a conventional sense. Soooo......Ukraine will probably have to go quite unconventional IMO
Eliminatus
12:31a, 2/24/22
In reply to Agthatbuilds
Agthatbuilds said:


Undoubtedly. Those MLRS strikes earlier were not at a training area. Those things are f'ing nasty. Grid Killers is another name for them and pretty damn accurate.

I remember watching a reporter on the first line trenches at the border. Looks like something me and the neighborhood boys built. Literally the first line of defense. The troops there were the equivalent of our National Guard but poorly trained, though stoic, bless them. There was no way they didn't get rolled up in the dark.
jabberwalkie09
12:32a, 2/24/22
Eliminatus
12:36a, 2/24/22
In reply to jabberwalkie09
jabberwalkie09 said:


Nice. they are digging in. A protracted war is the last thing Russia can afford right now.

I don't know if it is my Texan upbringing or my male mentality when it comes to home and hearth but damn it, hats off to these folks.
jabberwalkie09
12:36a, 2/24/22
W
12:37a, 2/24/22
Belarus - Ukraine relations should be damaged for a long, long time as a result of this.

they got along pretty well after the Soviet breakup...until recent years
ABATTBQ11
12:37a, 2/24/22
In reply to Rapier108
Rapier108 said:

Live cameras from Odessa show people walking around like nothing is happening. Some carrying bags of groceries, others going along like a normal day.


"Live"
Agthatbuilds
12:38a, 2/24/22
Gordo14
12:39a, 2/24/22
jabberwalkie09
12:39a, 2/24/22
Saw a clip of a destroyed BMP. Unclear if RU or UA. This is unfortunately the first of many more to come.
jabberwalkie09
12:40a, 2/24/22
In reply to Agthatbuilds
Agthatbuilds said:



Do we call that a twofer? The plane and pilot?
Gordo14
12:41a, 2/24/22
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