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March Housing Update Across Texas

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Red Pear Realty
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8:03a, 4/12/24
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HOUSTON

Well, we made it to Friday, so that's something.

From HAR's president:

Quote:
All housing segments experienced slower sales in March. The low end of the market saw the biggest decline with the sales down 28.9 percent while the luxury segment ($1 million+) saw a modest decline of 0.4 percent. There was no let-up in demand for rentals of single-family homes in March. HAR will publish its March 2024 Rental Home Update on Wednesday, April 17.

"We're seeing a spring cleaning of sorts in the housing market," said HAR Chair Thomas Mouton with Century 21 Exclusive. "The rise in active listings indicates more homeowners are testing the waters and putting their properties on the market, but some buyers may be taking a cautious approach due to continued interest rate fluctuations."




The Facts
  • Total Sales down 7% YOY, and total active listings up 26% YOY
  • Mean and Median Sales Prices up 1.3% / 1.6% YOY
  • Inventory up 0.9 months YOY and 0.1 months from February
  • Pending sales are up just under 5%
  • CPI up again, 3.5% YOY and concerningly, 0.4% MOM. Can you pick out on the chart below when CPI data was released? This is bad, mmmkay. Interest rates well over 7% again for most buyers.




My Take
  • I went 0 for 4 on buyer client offers this week. 2 of the 4 were at asking price with 20% down, no weird contingencies, etc. The other 2 were ABOVE asking price, all cash offers with good terms. So every single deal we offered on had multiple offers and went above asking price. That, coupled with the nice CPI / interest rate gift, made for a fun week. When I offer, I don't just play games with the asking price, I actually run comps on each deal. So in my opinion, we offered fair terms or above market on each one of these. We were aggressive. Then wake up to see the data dump from HAR...Not sure what everyone else is seeing, but my week wasn't the best for buyers.


Finally, I have a few cool new listings posted yesterday that I want to highlight:

https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2068
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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9:20a, 4/12/24
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Bryan / College Station Area Statistics:


  • Average home price is 5.2% over last month ($402K vs $382K). It's up 10% from March 2023.
  • 32% of homes sold were $200K-$300K range & 37% of homes sold were in the $300K-$500K range.
  • Sales by volume has already eclipsed the last 4 years ($132M in homes sold March 2024 vs $126M in March of 2021)
  • Days on Market is up to 119 days. (for comparison 2020/2021 averaged 114 days)
  • New listings of 564 homes is the 2nd highest over last 5 years.
  • Inventory is sitting right under 4 months of supply

My Take-Aways:

  • Buyers are few and far between right now. If you have someone making an offer on your house in BCS in less then 60 days, that is a solid win in my book. Pretty much all of my clients right now are Sellers.
  • That being said, I feel like B/CS continues to prove its resilience and insulation to the economic woes.
  • New Home builders are offering 4.99% interest rates with buy-downs to potential clients is tough to beat.
  • Not making light of current events, but lots of folks seem to recently be interested in buying some land & acreage round these parts.
  • The BCS Parade of Homes starts on April 27th! Great time to go view some awesome homes and visit with local builders (https://bcsparadeofhomes.org/web/)
  • Oh - Jimbo Fisher finally listed his house for sale, needless to say good for him and our his investment...

Bryan/College Station MSA:









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jja79
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 10:11a, 4/12/24
AG
Jamie do you think people are coming to grips with what seems to be the fact that this rate level is here to stay for a while?
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Tex117
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10:17a, 4/12/24
AG
This is always great information.
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to jja79 • 10:20a, 4/12/24
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Yes. And the others are knocked out of the game completely. I think the latter is why we are seeing a decline in closed sales YOY.
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In reply to Tex117 • 10:20a, 4/12/24
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Thank you
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Red Pear Felipe
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10:54a, 4/12/24
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Austin-Round Rock

March 2024 Central Texas Housing Market Report

Quote:
Clare Losey, Ph.D., housing economist for Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of REALTORS, noted that the increase in monthly inventory is a sign of a healthier and robust housing market.


"The current housing market is more favorable for first-time homebuyers, with an uptick in new listings for the lowest priced homes. More inventory means more options tailored to buyers' specific needs and interests, allowing them more personalization and choice of location when looking for their new home. It's great to see the stability of the current market in the first quarter of 2024."

Kent Redding, 2024 Unlock MLS and ABoR president, provided further insight into current market conditions and the value of being represented by a licensed REALTOR.

"In an era marked by economic resilience and favorable market conditions, aspiring homeowners are finding exciting opportunities to realize their dreams of homeownership. Through the use of Unlock MLS, the largest source of Central Texas housing market data, agents are able to provide the most accurate and timely data to assist clients during the transaction process."

Austin Facts


  • Median sales prices remained flat at $450,000 while closed sales decreased less than 1.0% YOY to 2,563.
  • New listings are up 10.2% YOY to 4,714 and months of inventory is creeping closer to it being a buyer's market with 3.8 months of inventory.
  • It also looks like sellers are getting 94.8% of their asking price. Sellers were getting 90.3% of their asking price this time last year.
  • My client's home in Western Oaks received an offer on the first day. We decided to wait a bit and we ended up getting $30,000 over asking price! We were aggressively pricing it with the hopes of getting as many eyes on it. Well, we did and my clients won out on this one. My clients will save $9,450 on listing fees.

Austin-Round Rock


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County

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500,000ags
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11:16a, 4/12/24
AG
Going to be interesting to see the tug of war between prices versus volume in this environment.
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Tex117
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In reply to 500,000ags • 11:21a, 4/12/24
AG
500,000ags said:
Going to be interesting to see the tug of war between prices versus volume in this environment.
Right. Is it that sellers are still wanting top dollar, but not selling to buyers who are concerned about interest rates?
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Diggity
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In reply to Tex117 • 5:39p, 4/12/24
AG
Not enough sellers in the resale market.
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JobSecurity
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9:28a, 4/13/24
AG
Anecdotally I saw more new listings in my area (Katy) in the last 48 hours than any other similar period in the past 18 months.

The Nice, fully updated houses that don't need much if any work are still going pending almost immediately, and at prices that seem ridiculous to me at least. After that top tier it seems more price conscious..
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TokinAg
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9:42a, 4/13/24
AG
Keeping my eye on the market here in DFW and the story is the same.. the very best houses (tier 1) seem to go under contract within a few days, regardless of price.

It's not uncommon to have a home listed on Tues/Wed, have an open house on Sat and be under contract by Monday.

Tier 1.5 homes (very nice homes @ reasonable prices) last 1-3 weeks.

Beyond that.. homes either sit for ages or get their price cut aggressively.

I hope this trend continues (rising inventory)... that's the only real way we'll get relief on prices (as a buyer).
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DannyDuberstein
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6:52a, 4/14/24
AG
My mom passed away in 2019 and my dad this January, so my sister and I have been in the process of selling their Plano house. It is under contract and set to close this week. Smaller downsize (or starter) house, but extremely nice, updated, and on a great creek lot. Went on the market on Friday March 23 and had 7 offers by the following Monday morning. 4 above list and 3 at list. I think there were 25 showings and the open house that Sunday was an absolute zoo. Went for 50% more than they paid in Nov 2018.
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AgCPA95
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In reply to JobSecurity • 8:37a, 4/14/24
AG
JobSecurity said:
Anecdotally I saw more new listings in my area (Katy) in the last 48 hours than any other similar period in the past 18 months.

The Nice, fully updated houses that don't need much if any work are still going pending almost immediately, and at prices that seem ridiculous to me at least. After that top tier it seems more price conscious..


I would assume lot timing the summer close and move for schools. I think higher rate"normalcy" started to take hold while last summer it was too new.
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Sea Speed
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In reply to Tex117 • 3:50p, 4/14/24
AG
Tex117 said:
This is always great information.


Love this thread every month. Wish we could get notifications it goes up every month.
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Sea Speed
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In reply to JobSecurity • 3:57p, 4/14/24
AG
JobSecurity said:
Anecdotally I saw more new listings in my area (Katy) in the last 48 hours than any other similar period in the past 18 months.

The Nice, fully updated houses that don't need much if any work are still going pending almost immediately, and at prices that seem ridiculous to me at least. After that top tier it seems more price conscious..


It never ceases to amaze me that folks completely lack foresight or ability to buy a house that "needs" a little bit of updating and save a ton and then get to pick finishes and concepts and the like but instead pay a massive premium for turnkey stuff. Some people can't even envision a home with different colored interior paints.
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htxag09
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In reply to Sea Speed • 4:50p, 4/14/24
AG
Sea Speed said:
JobSecurity said:
Anecdotally I saw more new listings in my area (Katy) in the last 48 hours than any other similar period in the past 18 months.

The Nice, fully updated houses that don't need much if any work are still going pending almost immediately, and at prices that seem ridiculous to me at least. After that top tier it seems more price conscious..


It never ceases to amaze me that folks completely lack foresight or ability to buy a house that "needs" a little bit of updating and save a ton and then get to pick finishes and concepts and the like but instead pay a massive premium for turnkey stuff. Some people can't even envision a home with different colored interior paints.

I don't necessarily disagree. I think that's the main reason we got the house we have. It's a 3 bedroom in a neighborhood of 4 & 5 bedroom houses but a large decked attic on the second floor that can be converted.

I will say, though, there is more to it than just having the foresight to see the updates. It takes significantly more liquid, upfront money than buying a move in ready home. If you don't have the cash for a down payment and renovations that can hinder you. Depending on the scope and scale, can also need the ability to stay in your existing house or have a place to stay during the renovations.
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JobSecurity
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In reply to htxag09 • 4:58p, 4/14/24
AG
Yeah I think with how expensive houses are now people are already really stretching so the additional expense of updating isn't as tolerable as it may have been in the past
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bullard21k
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 8:11p, 4/14/24
AG
Red Pear Realty said:
HOUSTON

Well, we made it to Friday, so that's something.

From HAR's president:

Quote:
All housing segments experienced slower sales in March. The low end of the market saw the biggest decline with the sales down 28.9 percent while the luxury segment ($1 million+) saw a modest decline of 0.4 percent. There was no let-up in demand for rentals of single-family homes in March. HAR will publish its March 2024 Rental Home Update on Wednesday, April 17.

"We're seeing a spring cleaning of sorts in the housing market," said HAR Chair Thomas Mouton with Century 21 Exclusive. "The rise in active listings indicates more homeowners are testing the waters and putting their properties on the market, but some buyers may be taking a cautious approach due to continued interest rate fluctuations."




The Facts
  • Total Sales down 7% YOY, and total active listings up 26% YOY
  • Mean and Median Sales Prices up 1.3% / 1.6% YOY
  • Inventory up 0.9 months YOY and 0.1 months from February
  • Pending sales are up just under 5%
  • CPI up again, 3.5% YOY and concerningly, 0.4% MOM. Can you pick out on the chart below when CPI data was released? This is bad, mmmkay. Interest rates well over 7% again for most buyers.




My Take
  • I went 0 for 4 on buyer client offers this week. 2 of the 4 were at asking price with 20% down, no weird contingencies, etc. The other 2 were ABOVE asking price, all cash offers with good terms. So every single deal we offered on had multiple offers and went above asking price. That, coupled with the nice CPI / interest rate gift, made for a fun week. When I offer, I don't just play games with the asking price, I actually run comps on each deal. So in my opinion, we offered fair terms or above market on each one of these. We were aggressive. Then wake up to see the data dump from HAR...Not sure what everyone else is seeing, but my week wasn't the best for buyers.


Finally, I have a few cool new listings posted yesterday that I want to highlight:

https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2068
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

Were any of the 4 you lost out on happen to be in Nottingham forest in Stratford?
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Wycliffe
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In reply to bullard21k • 8:23p, 4/14/24
Wouldnt doubt it! Nottingham West is absolutely nuts right now.
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cj2011
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In reply to Wycliffe • 8:58p, 4/14/24
Can confirm this. I went in over asking on a couple houses in the area recently and lost both. Market trends do not apply to that area.
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Average Joe
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In reply to Sea Speed • 10:00p, 4/14/24
AG
Sea Speed said:
JobSecurity said:
Anecdotally I saw more new listings in my area (Katy) in the last 48 hours than any other similar period in the past 18 months.

The Nice, fully updated houses that don't need much if any work are still going pending almost immediately, and at prices that seem ridiculous to me at least. After that top tier it seems more price conscious..


It never ceases to amaze me that folks completely lack foresight or ability to buy a house that "needs" a little bit of updating and save a ton and then get to pick finishes and concepts and the like but instead pay a massive premium for turnkey stuff. Some people can't even envision a home with different colored interior paints.
When I was shopping a couple of years ago, everything that needed $40-$50k+ in reno's were priced closely to turnkey houses. A lot were priced the same, and others were maybe $15-$20k less.
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to bullard21k • 10:05p, 4/14/24
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One in the Heights, one in Oak Forest, and the other two were in suburbs.
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Sea Speed
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In reply to Average Joe • 6:51a, 4/15/24
AG
Average Joe said:
Sea Speed said:
JobSecurity said:
Anecdotally I saw more new listings in my area (Katy) in the last 48 hours than any other similar period in the past 18 months.

The Nice, fully updated houses that don't need much if any work are still going pending almost immediately, and at prices that seem ridiculous to me at least. After that top tier it seems more price conscious..


It never ceases to amaze me that folks completely lack foresight or ability to buy a house that "needs" a little bit of updating and save a ton and then get to pick finishes and concepts and the like but instead pay a massive premium for turnkey stuff. Some people can't even envision a home with different colored interior paints.
When I was shopping a couple of years ago, everything that needed $40-$50k+ in reno's were priced closely to turnkey houses. A lot were priced the same, and others were maybe $15-$20k less.


Which shows another problem, people overestimating their homes value. I'm guessing they didn't get that.
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MAS444
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 8:25a, 4/15/24
AG
Quote:
Finally, I have a few cool new listings posted yesterday that I want to highlight:
How much for yall to continue operating the AirBnB? I've got an irrational emotional attachment to that street/block+.
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8:45a, 4/15/24
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Bell County


Belton


Temple
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In reply to Sea Speed • 8:48a, 4/15/24
AG
Sea Speed said:
Tex117 said:
This is always great information.


Love this thread every month. Wish we could get notifications it goes up every month.


You can get close.

In the app go to notifications, click on wheel. Click plus sign, add user, select which forum.

Should look like this

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Average Joe
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In reply to Sea Speed • 8:59a, 4/15/24
AG
Sea Speed said:
Average Joe said:
Sea Speed said:
JobSecurity said:
Anecdotally I saw more new listings in my area (Katy) in the last 48 hours than any other similar period in the past 18 months.

The Nice, fully updated houses that don't need much if any work are still going pending almost immediately, and at prices that seem ridiculous to me at least. After that top tier it seems more price conscious..


It never ceases to amaze me that folks completely lack foresight or ability to buy a house that "needs" a little bit of updating and save a ton and then get to pick finishes and concepts and the like but instead pay a massive premium for turnkey stuff. Some people can't even envision a home with different colored interior paints.
When I was shopping a couple of years ago, everything that needed $40-$50k+ in reno's were priced closely to turnkey houses. A lot were priced the same, and others were maybe $15-$20k less.


Which shows another problem, people overestimating their homes value. I'm guessing they didn't get that.


It was very consistent across the board. The only benefit to some of the older houses was just raw square footage. Slightly larger bedrooms or common areas. That's what almost made us go for a few, but then we would have to shell out $20-30k immediately to replace 20 year old carpets and old wood paneling.
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In reply to MAS444 • 9:18a, 4/15/24
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That one is tough. When we bought it, it was a 2/1, and we converted it to a 3/2 while keeping the existing footprint, which force appreciated it. So even though we grossed over $50,000 of revenue last year through Airbnb, the ROE isn't what I can get with other investments, and that's why we're selling. I'm looking to get into spec luxury development so we're going to use the proceeds for that. We actually have a movie filming there this week, which is pretty fun. I'm trying to finagle that into an invite to the premier party, but we'll see how that goes.
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MAS444
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 9:28a, 4/15/24
AG
Understood. Great looking home on good street/block. The area sure does look different from when I moved there 20 years ago. Good luck with it!

Spec luxury development...SFHs?
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Sea Speed
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In reply to aggiedata • 9:32a, 4/15/24
AG
aggiedata said:
Sea Speed said:
Tex117 said:
This is always great information.


Love this thread every month. Wish we could get notifications it goes up every month.


You can get close.

In the app go to notifications, click on wheel. Click plus sign, add user, select which forum.

Should look like this



I was under the impression the app was iPhone only. I'll look in to it.
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aggiedata
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9:40a, 4/15/24
AG
I didn't realize you were one of the Androids

That app is not yet out for TexAgs.
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jja79
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9:41a, 4/15/24
AG
10 year Treasury up big today to 4.65%. T&P to mortgage rates.
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MAS444
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In reply to jja79 • 9:45a, 4/15/24
AG
jja - Will you resend me your "retirement" email address?
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Sea Speed
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In reply to aggiedata • 10:08a, 4/15/24
AG
aggiedata said:
I didn't realize you were one of the Androids

That app is not yet out for TexAgs.


I will never voluntarily buy an iPhone. Work gave me one and I hate it.
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