I think the previews the TexAgs writers have already posted do a solid job of discussing this LSU team, but I'll give y'all my two cents, as well. Sorry for being a bit late in posting this.
After losing 12 human players and one alien from last year's championship team, most sane LSU fans expected some drop-off this year. We were all pleasantly surprised at how well the team was playing through the Houston tournament, where our pitching was dominant, and we beat some good teams. I genuinely thought we looked like an Omaha-caliber team and said that here.
Then the wheels fell completely off. I expected us to be sitting around .500 in SEC play after the Tennessee series, since we had a brutal schedule. Nobody expected a dismal stretch of five straight series losses, a 3-12 SEC start, and an embarrassing home loss to Southern. We've played better since then, but Mizzou and Auburn are the two least-talented teams in the SEC, so that could be fool's gold.
I don't think we're as bad as the 3-12 start to conference play or as good as the excellent 16-2 start to the season. I think the "real" LSU team is mediocre and somewhere between those extremes. This season reminds me so much of the 2011 season. In 2011, the SEC was ridiculously stacked (Florida and Carolina played for the title), we got off to a great start, then imploded in SEC play with many close losses, and barely missed the postseason. It looks like that will happen again this year.
We lost a ton of close, winnable games in that 3-12 stretch. If we had won even a few of those, we would be much more safely in the postseason instead of playing for our lives these last three weeks. I don't expect a series win against A&M, but that would be a massive boost to our chances, so you can expect our best effort this weekend.
Offense
To no surprise, after losing a bunch of veteran hitters, including the best player in program history (Dylan Crews), we've taken a major step back offensively this year. We especially suck at clutch hitting. I believe our average with RISP in SEC play is around .200 . We're great at hitting solo homers and striking out with the bases loaded. I'm pretty sure it's happened multiple times this season where we didn't score from a bases loaded, nobody out situation. It has made Jay Johnson sad, and all of us.
Tommy White is the best overall hitter, with incredible power to all fields. Jared Jones is also a major power threat, and has greatly improved his plate discipline. Super-senior Hayden Travinski is another major power threat. However, outside of them and maybe Mack Bingham, we don't have consistent power this year. It is very much concentrated in the middle of the order, compared to last year's murder's row of power. Freshman Ashton Larson has emerged as a great hitter, and transfer SS Michael Braswell has been a much better hitter than expected.
On the negative side, we suck at clutch hitting. And Paxton Kling has completely failed to make the sophomore jump we were counting on to fill the shoes of Dylan Crews. Mack Bingham hasn't hit for the average we were expecting, and Josh Pearson also hasn't made the jump we were counting on. Brady Neal destroys bad pitching, but is lost against good pitchers, so he also hasn't made the jump we were expecting.
Pitching
After Houston, I thought this might be the deepest pitching staff we've ever had at LSU. Then it just imploded. I think the biggest problem is that Thatcher Hurd has failed to make the jump we were counting on this year. He started the year as our ace, and now he barely pitches on weekends period. It seems to be mental with him, as he falls apart with adversity. We hoped for the postseason version of him, and instead got the regular season. We need him to figure it out. Maybe he can only pitch well in the month of June.
So because of that, we only have two reliable starters. Gage Jump is now our Friday guy. He has a jerky, deceptive delivery and electric stuff when he's on. Alabama transfer Luke Holman has been our Saturday guy. He reminds me a ton of Aaron Nola with his delivery, command, and calm demeanor on the mound. We've tried about six different guys to be the third starter, and nobody has stuck. My best guess is you'll see Nate Ackenhausen on Sunday, but it could be Javen Coleman or Griffin Herring. I suspect we'll use Herring in the first two games as the stopper if we have a lead.
Our bullpen can only be described as incredibly inconsistent. We generally strike out a ton of hitters but also issue lots of walks and costly hits, as well. Jay and Yeskie still seem to be figuring this group out. There's lots of underperforming talent. Guys will show lots of potential one outing, then suck the next, so our coaches don't know who to trust. Griffin Herring is our best bullpen arm. Jay seems to like Sam Dutton, Will Hellmers, and Christian Little a lot, so you'll probably see them at some point. Freshman Cam Johnson has amazing stuff, but can't control it yet. Aidan Moffit is a flamethrower, who has been pitching more lately. Xavier transfer Justin Loer was amazing in the fall, but has really disappointed so far. Fidel Ulloa pitched a ton at the start of the season, but doesn't seem to pitch much now, and I'm not sure why.
Defense
This team is pretty average defensively, by LSU standards. Tommy White has improved significantly at 3B in his draft year, and is playing great defense. Freshman 2B Steven Milam has been great, and Jared Jones has been good at 1B to fill Tre Morgan's irreplaceable talent there. South Carolina transfer Michael Braswell has been somewhat disappointing at SS. He can make some nice plays, but also boots routine plays at the worst times. Our outfield is solid and speedy, especially when Paxton Kling is in CF. We are solid at catcher and difficult to steal bases on. Our pitchers have been bad defensively this season, with a ton of errant throws.
Baserunning
Last year, we didn't take many risks on the base paths with the monster offense we had. This year, we have to play much more aggressively. Expect us to steal bases and test your defense. Larson, Kling, and Bingham are very fast. This is the worst LSU team I've ever seen at bunting, so we're unlikely to do that at this point in the season. But we will do hit and runs sometimes.
Paul Mainieri's final recruiting class in 2021 was very bad, and I think we're experiencing the ripple effects of that this year. There just isn't enough upperclassmen leadership playing well. On the bright side, some freshmen have emerged as building pieces for the future. It's still disappointing, as LSU should never miss the postseason completely with the resources we put into baseball. I think Jay will learn from this year.
Overall, this has been a very disappointing year. I expect our tradition of no sweeps to continue, with y'all taking 2 out of 3. I think we'll win one of the first two games and get blown out on Sunday, which is par for the course.
Good luck!
After losing 12 human players and one alien from last year's championship team, most sane LSU fans expected some drop-off this year. We were all pleasantly surprised at how well the team was playing through the Houston tournament, where our pitching was dominant, and we beat some good teams. I genuinely thought we looked like an Omaha-caliber team and said that here.
Then the wheels fell completely off. I expected us to be sitting around .500 in SEC play after the Tennessee series, since we had a brutal schedule. Nobody expected a dismal stretch of five straight series losses, a 3-12 SEC start, and an embarrassing home loss to Southern. We've played better since then, but Mizzou and Auburn are the two least-talented teams in the SEC, so that could be fool's gold.
I don't think we're as bad as the 3-12 start to conference play or as good as the excellent 16-2 start to the season. I think the "real" LSU team is mediocre and somewhere between those extremes. This season reminds me so much of the 2011 season. In 2011, the SEC was ridiculously stacked (Florida and Carolina played for the title), we got off to a great start, then imploded in SEC play with many close losses, and barely missed the postseason. It looks like that will happen again this year.
We lost a ton of close, winnable games in that 3-12 stretch. If we had won even a few of those, we would be much more safely in the postseason instead of playing for our lives these last three weeks. I don't expect a series win against A&M, but that would be a massive boost to our chances, so you can expect our best effort this weekend.
Offense
To no surprise, after losing a bunch of veteran hitters, including the best player in program history (Dylan Crews), we've taken a major step back offensively this year. We especially suck at clutch hitting. I believe our average with RISP in SEC play is around .200 . We're great at hitting solo homers and striking out with the bases loaded. I'm pretty sure it's happened multiple times this season where we didn't score from a bases loaded, nobody out situation. It has made Jay Johnson sad, and all of us.
Tommy White is the best overall hitter, with incredible power to all fields. Jared Jones is also a major power threat, and has greatly improved his plate discipline. Super-senior Hayden Travinski is another major power threat. However, outside of them and maybe Mack Bingham, we don't have consistent power this year. It is very much concentrated in the middle of the order, compared to last year's murder's row of power. Freshman Ashton Larson has emerged as a great hitter, and transfer SS Michael Braswell has been a much better hitter than expected.
On the negative side, we suck at clutch hitting. And Paxton Kling has completely failed to make the sophomore jump we were counting on to fill the shoes of Dylan Crews. Mack Bingham hasn't hit for the average we were expecting, and Josh Pearson also hasn't made the jump we were counting on. Brady Neal destroys bad pitching, but is lost against good pitchers, so he also hasn't made the jump we were expecting.
Pitching
After Houston, I thought this might be the deepest pitching staff we've ever had at LSU. Then it just imploded. I think the biggest problem is that Thatcher Hurd has failed to make the jump we were counting on this year. He started the year as our ace, and now he barely pitches on weekends period. It seems to be mental with him, as he falls apart with adversity. We hoped for the postseason version of him, and instead got the regular season. We need him to figure it out. Maybe he can only pitch well in the month of June.
So because of that, we only have two reliable starters. Gage Jump is now our Friday guy. He has a jerky, deceptive delivery and electric stuff when he's on. Alabama transfer Luke Holman has been our Saturday guy. He reminds me a ton of Aaron Nola with his delivery, command, and calm demeanor on the mound. We've tried about six different guys to be the third starter, and nobody has stuck. My best guess is you'll see Nate Ackenhausen on Sunday, but it could be Javen Coleman or Griffin Herring. I suspect we'll use Herring in the first two games as the stopper if we have a lead.
Our bullpen can only be described as incredibly inconsistent. We generally strike out a ton of hitters but also issue lots of walks and costly hits, as well. Jay and Yeskie still seem to be figuring this group out. There's lots of underperforming talent. Guys will show lots of potential one outing, then suck the next, so our coaches don't know who to trust. Griffin Herring is our best bullpen arm. Jay seems to like Sam Dutton, Will Hellmers, and Christian Little a lot, so you'll probably see them at some point. Freshman Cam Johnson has amazing stuff, but can't control it yet. Aidan Moffit is a flamethrower, who has been pitching more lately. Xavier transfer Justin Loer was amazing in the fall, but has really disappointed so far. Fidel Ulloa pitched a ton at the start of the season, but doesn't seem to pitch much now, and I'm not sure why.
Defense
This team is pretty average defensively, by LSU standards. Tommy White has improved significantly at 3B in his draft year, and is playing great defense. Freshman 2B Steven Milam has been great, and Jared Jones has been good at 1B to fill Tre Morgan's irreplaceable talent there. South Carolina transfer Michael Braswell has been somewhat disappointing at SS. He can make some nice plays, but also boots routine plays at the worst times. Our outfield is solid and speedy, especially when Paxton Kling is in CF. We are solid at catcher and difficult to steal bases on. Our pitchers have been bad defensively this season, with a ton of errant throws.
Baserunning
Last year, we didn't take many risks on the base paths with the monster offense we had. This year, we have to play much more aggressively. Expect us to steal bases and test your defense. Larson, Kling, and Bingham are very fast. This is the worst LSU team I've ever seen at bunting, so we're unlikely to do that at this point in the season. But we will do hit and runs sometimes.
Paul Mainieri's final recruiting class in 2021 was very bad, and I think we're experiencing the ripple effects of that this year. There just isn't enough upperclassmen leadership playing well. On the bright side, some freshmen have emerged as building pieces for the future. It's still disappointing, as LSU should never miss the postseason completely with the resources we put into baseball. I think Jay will learn from this year.
Overall, this has been a very disappointing year. I expect our tradition of no sweeps to continue, with y'all taking 2 out of 3. I think we'll win one of the first two games and get blown out on Sunday, which is par for the course.
Good luck!