Hollywood: The Known Unknowns
— Roy Price (@RoyPrice) December 14, 2022
Some of the key looming plot twists in Hollywood’s second act
- Shift to ads. (And ownership?)
- Cultural diffraction
- Universal search
- Global local content rebellion
- The decentralized alternativehttps://t.co/3wc2tmMCNb
Apple’s rumored NFL Sunday Ticket deal might not happen this year https://t.co/PdnMzLFsXH pic.twitter.com/gGeuBlgeAW
— The Verge (@verge) December 16, 2022
I cannot speak for all "old media" but in the spirit of full disclosure, I do work for an "old media" company. I can tell you without a doubt, we have no fckin clue how to monetize "new" media correctly. As with anything, we take what we can get. I think the first article was a great "where are we now?" view. The biggest players are fine because they're not core businesses. Everyone (not counting Netflix and they're big enough at their own core because of how they started and grew into what they became) who are the big players are leveraging their infrastructure in some way to monetize. Apple and Amazon grew streaming off their incredibly strong brands in adjacent fields and have the money to burn to build whatever they want. The major TV outlets I think can all have their OTT services and a free alternative because the content is there. I do feel like smaller services from smaller outlets will wind up either closing and just license their stuff to another outlet, though. It'll be very interesting (already has been to see what WB-Discovery has done) to see what shakes out for the smaller ones. Consolidation is coming, and it might even be as easy as how when WWE closed their streaming service and went with Peacock.
I think the sports rights packages over the next few years are going to be incredibly interesting. Been posting a tiny bit about this on the zoo in appropriate theads but the overwhelming majority of money is still in OTA (over the air) and cable/mso and I think that's what will drive the next round of rights packages. The curveball is the money that Apple and Amazon can throw at the leagues right now. They can straight up pay cash right now for the rights fees, whereas NBCU/Disney/Fox/Paramount definitely have those contracts hanging around their necks hoping like hell the traditional ad market stays together long enough to cover the checks they've written.
Every (and I do mean every) media company sees that digital is the new hotness and we're all trying to have...something....anything to sell so we can say "oh yeah we do that too!" The growth is in digital but the linear is what pays the bills. So how do you get some of that growth and capture those advertisers? Or more specifically...how do you keep your current advertisers if they're wanting a full spectrum of content to advertise to AND to hit every possible way a consumer consumes the content?
There's a reason Twitter is riddled with bargain basement rando apps and click bait ads. They're dirt cheap. There's a reason you see the same 5-10 commercials on your ad-supported OTT services. They're dirt cheap. The difference in the 2 is that Twitter is such a miniscule part of the admarket, it's a throw-in or a rounding error to advertise on Twitter. For a major brand, it's nothing to pull your ads off Twitter, yet advertising is (or was, pre-Musk) 80% of Twitter revenue. Meanwhile, if you're Kraft or Chevy or Target, and spending tens of millions across all spectrums, Disney has absolutely zero problems saying "hey Kraft, if you keep your ad spending at current levels, we'll throw in Hulu for free." Sure, Disney will certainly sell you ads on Hulu for a price, but if you're a big enough spender, you're probably getting them free or very very discounted.
The ad market is splintering daily and if you're not a big enough player to offer a product that scratches every advertisers' desire to be in front of every consumer they want to reach, you're going to be left in the dust. OTA tv, cable, radio...they aren't going away, not by any stretch. But there's not a single company (or rather, not a single company's shareholders) who is going to be satisfied with just maintaining what they have. Makes me wonder what the future holds because content finds a way. Once content finds an outlet the next step is someone making money off it 20 years ago we couldn't have contemplated Twitter. 10 years ago we couldn't have contemplated TikTok. (I do miss Vine, though)
Honestly, part of me hopes I'm long retired by the time most of this stuff shakes out. Then I can just watch TV and listen to the radio or podcasts without wondering why these advertisers aren't paying my company any money.
Apple has reportedly backed out of NFL Sunday Ticket negotiations https://t.co/TZBn2hrVTx pic.twitter.com/80hCZFRRE4
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) December 17, 2022
Will Disney get families returning to theaters at near pre pandemic levels when many parents have now been trained to just wait until the show will very soon be on Disney+? (This may be in one of the Disney threads)
Does marketing a movie and having a strong theatrical release help streamers or hurt them?
New pod: Why Hollywood has turned on the Netflix business model, with United Talent CEO Jeremy Zimmer. Listen! https://t.co/XK1vL4fMdY
— Matthew Belloni (@MattBelloni) December 16, 2022
This latest episode of The Town should be required listening for all writers. 🎧 @ringer @MattBelloni @jeremyzimmhttps://t.co/mXiWNFlY6h
— Script Pipeline (@ScriptPipeline) December 16, 2022
Tl; Dr recap: studios and content providers pulling back their own property for their own services and everyone's increasing pricing because streaming isn't as profitable as fast as they'd like.
I think this fits alongside Iowaaggie's post...the pandemic changed a lot.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-streaming-tv-got-boring-netflix-hulu-hbo-max-cable-2022-12
Good read, good perspective.superunknown said:
This was a pretty good read..
Tl; Dr recap: studios and content providers pulling back their own property for their own services and everyone's increasing pricing because streaming isn't as profitable as fast as they'd like.
I think this fits alongside Iowaaggie's post...the pandemic changed a lot.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-streaming-tv-got-boring-netflix-hulu-hbo-max-cable-2022-12
Breaking: The NFL is in advanced talks with Google’s YouTube for exclusive rights to its Sunday Ticket package, people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/LsMhdCHBji
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) December 20, 2022
I mean, Sunday Ticket was kind of cool when Directv would throw it in for free. But I'd never pay extra for it. There are at least four games on regular tv each week, often more. I'm sure it's important for some, like if you're in a different part of the country from your team. But it doesn't move the needle for me.TCTTS said:Breaking: The NFL is in advanced talks with Google’s YouTube for exclusive rights to its Sunday Ticket package, people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/LsMhdCHBji
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) December 20, 2022
Made me think the other day....if the other networks aren't thinking about doing something like this on their NFL deals, they're insane. CBS with a couple of players that already work for them doing a sidebar telecast on Paramount+. NBC may not want to mess with the Sunday night game and they do have the Sunday Night Final show on Peacock, but Fox should think about it. Thatd be a great part of a basic OTT service.
I'd watch an alt broadcast of almost any game, any sport.
I was lazy and never got around to cutting the cord. Now I'm glad I didn't.Rocagnante said:
Y'all remember back when it was cool to cut the cord and "save money" over cable? Yeah that was awesome!
I think most people will just have to pick and choose which sports/shows they want to get for a while. Then maybe pick up a service for a month to binge, and hope it wasnt spoiled for you
It helps that Netflix and other streamers have started putting out Hallmark-like Christmas movies. That's enough to keep my bride satisfied.
The new NFL Sunday Ticket/YouTube deal will accelerate cord-cutting — and may impact the spikes in TV subscription over the league’s season https://t.co/7V5PskEUCt pic.twitter.com/qnJyilMeLA
— Variety (@Variety) December 27, 2022
I would rather have just red zone channel instead of whole Sunday ticket.
Is there any reasonable chance that some consolidate?
So what happens to:
Starz (Lionsgate)
Cinemax (HBO/Warner)
Epix (MGM/Amazon)
Movie Channel (Showtime/Paramount)
Showtime (Paramount)
Is Flix still around?
Iowaggie said:
For a while, I've wondered what will become of a few of the smaller pay television/streaming services that mostly are just add ons to cable and sat packages, especially as those audiences continue to dwindle. My original thought they would be added to a parent company's already established service, but now I'm not sure that happens. It's been interesting to note that some of these parent company's haven't added to their streaming service so as to not cut out the revenue from the pay television.
Is there any reasonable chance that some consolidate?
So what happens to:
Starz (Lionsgate)
Cinemax (HBO/Warner)
Epix (MGM/Amazon)
Movie Channel (Showtime/Paramount)
Showtime (Paramount)
Is Flix still around?
- Lionsgate is currently in the process of "spinning off"/selling Starz. So Starz will be its own thing come spring, and then maybe someone else buys them eventually?
- Surely Cinemax is on the chopping block, under the new Discover deal.
- Epix recently rebranded as MGM+. Seems to be doing fine for now, and with Amazon's backing will likely stay afloat. Might eventually get folded into Amazon Prime Video, but doesn't sound like there are any plans to do so as of now.
- While Showtime channels still remain on cable, and there's still a dedicated Showtime app, all of Showtime's content was recently folded into Paramount+. So you can watch Showtime content on two different streaming platforms as of now. Word is the Showtime brand will eventually go away, though, and anything new will become "Paramount+" original series.
Now offering less content, HBO Max wants more of your money https://t.co/dclzZoU9vg pic.twitter.com/brmluQ1Uno
— The A.V. Club (@TheAVClub) January 12, 2023
I keep thinking about the WWE in all of this. They had one of the first streaming networks, but eventually decided to scrap it and just be a content creator for Peacock.superunknown said:
Was thinking about this last night, saw a promo for a Martin reunion thing they've got available on BET+ and while I'm not the target demo for BET, I loved that show and would like to see that reunion bit. Am I going to pay any money for it? Nope. So I probably won't bother ever seeing it. It makes a lot of sense for their to be consolidation but how far that goes is anyone's guess. I'm not a big enough TV fan to subscribe to everything. And I don't want to start trials just to watch a show or two. I wish there were numbers on how much subscriber revenue comes off autorenewals cross referenced by how much those autorenewal customers use the service.
I'm curios if someone like BET will come to the same realization. That they can maybe make more money selling their content to bigger streamers than they can hosting their own streamer.
TCTTS said:Iowaggie said:
For a while, I've wondered what will become of a few of the smaller pay television/streaming services that mostly are just add ons to cable and sat packages, especially as those audiences continue to dwindle. My original thought they would be added to a parent company's already established service, but now I'm not sure that happens. It's been interesting to note that some of these parent company's haven't added to their streaming service so as to not cut out the revenue from the pay television.
Is there any reasonable chance that some consolidate?
So what happens to:
Starz (Lionsgate)
Cinemax (HBO/Warner)
Epix (MGM/Amazon)
Movie Channel (Showtime/Paramount)
Showtime (Paramount)
Is Flix still around?
- Lionsgate is currently in the process of "spinning off"/selling Starz. So Starz will be its own thing come spring, and then maybe someone else buys them eventually?
- Surely Cinemax is on the chopping block, under the new Discover deal.
- Epix recently rebranded as MGM+. Seems to be doing fine for now, and with Amazon's backing will likely stay afloat. Might eventually get folded into Amazon Prime Video, but doesn't sound like there are any plans to do so as of now.
- While Showtime channels still remain on cable, and there's still a dedicated Showtime app, all of Showtime's content was recently folded into Paramount+. So you can watch Showtime content on two different streaming platforms as of now. Word is the Showtime brand will eventually go away, though, and anything new will become "Paramount+" original series.
Thank you.
To me, it's crazy to think that most those channels are still earning enough revenue from cable/sat to justify their existence (Cinemax, TMC), but the fact that they still exist and their top content isn't already under the HBOMax/Showtime services makes me think it is a positive cash flow. I can't figure out why they aren't already merged into the larger brands.
With HBOMax pulling some of their content as a financial move, maybe the established services don't see the need for more content that they have to pay on residuals? I legit don't know.
Side note: I liked Quarry, Jett, Strike Back, and other content on Cinemax, but I'm not wanting to subscribe to another platform.
Quad Dog said:I keep thinking about the WWE in all of this. They had one of the first streaming networks, but eventually decided to scrap it and just be a content creator for Peacock.superunknown said:
Was thinking about this last night, saw a promo for a Martin reunion thing they've got available on BET+ and while I'm not the target demo for BET, I loved that show and would like to see that reunion bit. Am I going to pay any money for it? Nope. So I probably won't bother ever seeing it. It makes a lot of sense for their to be consolidation but how far that goes is anyone's guess. I'm not a big enough TV fan to subscribe to everything. And I don't want to start trials just to watch a show or two. I wish there were numbers on how much subscriber revenue comes off autorenewals cross referenced by how much those autorenewal customers use the service.
I'm curios if someone like BET will come to the same realization. That they can maybe make more money selling their content to bigger streamers than they can hosting their own streamer.
I think where the WWE ends up will be a fascinating watch. This isn't like buying rights to broadcast some NFL, NBA, or MLB games, it's like buying the whole league and their historic catalog. (The Monday "The Town" podcast covers this well).
I did not think Disney as a possible destination, and still think it is unlikely, but if they are wanting to bulk up ESPN+ and/or Hulu, this would be a way to do it, and they already show UFC content. They also need to figure out what they are going to do with Hulu.