Forums Politics
Muh Polls
24,770 Views | 319 Replies
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nortex97
12:31p, 4/23/24
Wait, I thought Xiden was supposed to surge on all the lawfare/successes of his 'work.'

Nope; video; media stunned as Trump surges in polls. "We know exactly what 4 years of Joe Biden is, and we are being asked 'do you want 4 more years?' Hell no….'

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Drahknor03
12:39p, 4/24/24
These are "Trump's going to be in bed an happily asleep by 10pm EST" numbers:

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FireAg
1:05p, 4/24/24
In reply to Drahknor03
Wisconsin right on the edge of MOE...that's quite eye-opening...
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nortex97
1:38p, 4/24/24
In reply to Drahknor03
No one will go to bed comfortable in the results on election night. Democrats have made it into election vote 'counting' week, at best.

Unmarried women are the one significant demographic that seemingly…can't figure out what is wrong.

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ImSoDumb
1:44p, 4/24/24
And while Trump is spending campaign dollars on Melania's stylists, Pedo Joe is outspending Trump 20 to 1 to get single women to polls in the battleground states.
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oh no
12:37a, 4/25/24
In reply to ImSoDumb
ImSoDumb said:
Joe is outspending Trump 20 to 1 to get single women to polls in the battleground states.
dems don't spend a dime to get anyone to the polls anymore. They spend to harvest mass-mailed ballots in this Mickey Mouse banana republic.
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nortex97
5:28a, 4/25/24


Lawfare doing what, ahem, some of us predicted for Trump.

Up 3.3 in battleground states today.

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nortex97
9:24a, 4/26/24
More good news!



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Rockdoc
9:33a, 4/26/24
In reply to nortex97
I hope you're right, but I wonder about a couple of those.
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SA68AG
9:34a, 4/26/24
In reply to nortex97
nortex97 said:
More good news!



Great numbers but they're hard to believe. Trump by 10 in Wisconsin ? Trump by 15 in Michigan ?

I think those numbers are bull *****
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Rapier108
9:36a, 4/26/24
No way Trump is up 10 in Wisconsin and 15 in Michigan.

First off, both of those states tend to be the closest in every other poll, and Wisconsin is the one where Biden often has a small lead. Unless a bunch of other polls come out with similar results, I'd toss this one in the trash.

I don't have time right now to check, but I'd bet Kaplan does not have the best track record.

And just for the record, I do not and never have put any trust in polls becase one of my early jobs was doing surveys so I've seen how polls are conducted and know just how easy it is to rig/bias them. As Rush Limbaugh used to say, polls are about making news and shaping public opinion, not reporting on it.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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oh no
10:56a, 4/26/24
again, polling real live humans to gauge sentiment from registered likely voters would only be a decent predictor if we had secure election systems and processes.

you can't poll mass-mailed harvested ballots and those only vote one way.
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TRM
2:57p, 4/26/24
Kaplan is garbage. They had Crist or Fried leading DeSantis in early 2022. We all know how that turned out.
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FireAg
3:20p, 4/26/24
In reply to oh no
oh no said:
again, polling real live humans to gauge sentiment from registered likely voters would only be a decent predictor if we had secure election systems and processes.

you can't poll mass-mailed harvested ballots and those only vote one way.

We aren't supposed to talk about "conspiracy theories" on this thread because it triggers some posters…

With that said, I think polling above the MOE helps temper some of those efforts…
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oh no
4:46p, 4/26/24
In reply to FireAg
FireAg said:
poling above the MOE
polls don't matter anymore. MOE is useless when the actual margin is whatever is needed to achieve predetermined results, no matter how long it takes to "find" enough mailed in ballots. We've already seen this story play out and nothing has changed since then.
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aggiehawg
4:55p, 4/26/24
The only poll that really matters for an incumbent running for reelection (barring massive fraud of course) is approval ratings, IMO. Those get much below 50% say ten points, almost impossible to gain reelection. Although I believe approval polls have only been around since Eisenhower.
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oh no
5:09p, 4/26/24
Huh. Maybe this helps figure out what the real MOE is, if you can figure out how many ballots will be mass-mailed out.

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FireAg
7:29p, 4/26/24
In reply to oh no
oh no said:
FireAg said:
poling above the MOE
polls don't matter anymore. MOE is useless when the actual margin is whatever is needed to achieve predetermined results, no matter how long it takes to "find" enough mailed in ballots. We've already seen this story play out and nothing has changed since then.

Respectfully disagree…

Harder to convince the masses when the polling lopsided…

It needs to be lopsided though…
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Artorias
8:30p, 4/26/24
I have zero doubt national polls are all manufactured to fit the desired narrative. Come November, the polls will show a dead heat, giving Dems the cover to "find" however many votes they need to eke out another improbable victory.
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nortex97
8:30a, 4/27/24
In reply to Artorias
I have a theory that heading into the conventions the polls try to craft the narrative that the GOP is winning, so that afterward in the last 60 days they can show momentum for the communist ticket/party. It's a little early for that right now, though. Early summer/late spring polls are probably the most honest public ones.

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FJB24
6:52a, 4/29/24
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rgag12
7:00a, 4/29/24
In reply to Artorias
Artorias said:
I have zero doubt national polls are all manufactured to fit the desired narrative. Come November, the polls will show a dead heat


This is exactly correct.

The pollsters all know how to control their inputs so they can get their desired output, it's not that difficult.

It's all about fundraising.

In reality, there are about 30,000 or so voters in each of AZ, PA, MI, NV, and WI that are going to determine the presidency.

Everyone else has already made up their mind, and it's going to be the same party they've been voting for since 2016.
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SA68AG
10:04a, 4/29/24
55% say the Trump presidency was a success. 39% say the Biden presidency is a success from the CNN poll.

That may be the most encouraging poll result I've seen.

I infer from that the only people who think Trump's presidency was unsuccessful and Biden's successful are hardcore dems. For those numbers to be accurate almost all independents have to land on Trump's side.

This type of opinion isn't going to change before the election.

If Trump and his campaign repeatedly reinforce this, they should win. Keep pounding "You and the world were better off with Trump than with Biden" theme.
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oh no
10:15a, 4/29/24
Listen carefully




The millions and millions of noncitizens will vote pretty much one way and they aren't in the polls. This is how Marxism wins.


Also, polls give you a predictive indicator on how registered likely voters will consciously exercise their right. They don't predict how millions of harvested mass-mailed out ballots with no audit trail will be filled out though.
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agwrestler
11:24a, 4/29/24
In reply to ImSoDumb
ImSoDumb said:
Just a reminder don't trust the polls. Republicans crushed it in the RCP average right before the 2022 midterm elections. Here is how much Dems overperformed on elections day Nov 2022.



"MoSt seCuRe ElEcTiOn EvAh"
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oh no
11:55a, 4/29/24
Yep

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Waffledynamics
12:04p, 4/29/24
Convincing people that it's pointless to vote does not help your cause.
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oh no
12:12p, 4/29/24
In reply to Waffledynamics
Waffledynamics said:
Convincing people that it's pointless to vote does not help your cause.
keep voting, even if the results are predetermined, because if you don't even vote at all, you can't complain about it anymore.
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Layne Staley
12:37p, 4/29/24
Dem operatives were Geo-tracked going back and forth from dem precinct offices and ballot boxes. The election was stolen. Treason.

And the red wave was stolen also, not just President.

https://rumble.com/v1238uc-2000-mules-trailer.html
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oh no
4:11p, 4/29/24
In reply to Layne Staley
Layne Staley said:
Dem operatives were Geo-tracked going back and forth from dem precinct offices and ballot boxes. The election was stolen. Treason.

And the red wave was stolen also, not just President.

https://rumble.com/v1238uc-2000-mules-trailer.html
yeah but they could have been Uber drivers so BAM! All fraud debunked. Most secure election ever, clearly.
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oh no
4:13p, 4/29/24



How in the world is it so high at 38%?
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oh no
5:52p, 4/29/24



Again, polls don't show the illegal non-citizens who will have ballots harvested for them.
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Reality Check
8:52p, 4/29/24
In reply to oh no
oh no said:



How in the world is it so high at 38%?
Because the media's not covering Americans being held hostage by Islamic terrorists in the Middle East in 2024 like it did Americans being held hostage by Islamic terrorists in the Middle East in 1980.

Literally started Ted Koppell's program "Nightline" to give Americans an update on what was happening after the late local news each and every night.

Now the networks give people the nonsense of Colbert, Kimmel and Fallon, none of whom is likely even aware of how many Americans are being held in Hamas tunnels.
How do I get a Longhorn tag?
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notex
6:32a, 4/30/24
Harvard Harris survey has trump up 4 yesterday nationally in the two-way race, and 46-39-12 in the 3-way.
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SA68AG
8:45a, 4/30/24
Biden is fixing to lose a few more points due to his lack of leadership regarding the campus protests.
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