We know for a fact that after the election of 2008 how GDP is measured was changed to allow R&D expenses to be classified as "revenue", juicing the metric up by about 50bps going forward. So your baseline is a .50 reduction from any stated number

1.6% increase?

How much did government spending increase during that time period?


Added: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/

2024 FYTD (I think this is % spending by category and not % increase):

22% Social Security
14% Health (What does this encompass?)
13% National Defense (Surprising)
13% Net Interest (OMFG!!!)
12% Medicare
11% Income Security (Sad)
05% Veterans Benefits and Services
03% Education, Training, Employment, and Social Services
02% Commerace and Housing Credit
02% Transportation
03% Other (Does this include Foreign Aid?)

BoydCrowder13 said:

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deddog said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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I do hate how some posters actively root for the US to fail.

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Bull**** take.

The only one rooting for the US to fail are the morons who vote for Biden in the face of all the evidence that he has tanked the economy.

Maybe it's time you stop worrying about what Texags thinks, and look at the **** sandwhiches you are being dealt out by the Biden administration on a daily basis.
You can start with the GDP number above.

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The economy has problems. It's not as great as the media reports and not as bad as Texags whines about. I don't rejoice in bad economic news. I want the country and people to succeed regardless of who is in the Oval.

Politics has turned everything into a team sport and it creates crazy bias.

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And when the people pulling the strings on the puppet in the Oval don't share the same goals of prosperity and success for this country that you do??? Then what?

Get Off My Lawn said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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I do hate how some posters actively root for the US to fail.

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I just want the lying to stop. Apparently wanting honest analysis (as is foundational to diagnosing issues and identifying corrective options) makes me a meanie?

Although, I will admit that I want the marxists and the uniparty to fail in their goals to screw up our once great nation. If being anti-establishment equates to being anti-US in your book… well… you may proceed with the saliva-based cleansing of tyrant's footwear.

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I just roll my eyes at the Bill Maher "praying for a recession so Trump loses in 2020" mentality. Conservatives shouldn't have to wish ill on the economy to see Biden lose. He has done enough to lose without that.

As far as the economy goes, it is a weird time. Very few people are out of work. Corporations are posting good earnings (AI is helping out a good bit). We are probably in the next major technological boom.

On the other side, the debt is absolutely out of control. Interest rates and inflation are killing the middle class. Yet restaurants and concerts are still full. People are still traveling.

Depending on your income and net worth, this economy is either pretty good or horrific.

RafterAg223 said:

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I think this calls for another $100bn to Ukraine.

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Moar flags. Moar cameras. Moar money.

BTKAG97 said:

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1.6% increase?

How much did government spending increase during that time period?

Added: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/

2024 FYTD (I think this is % spending by category and not % increase):

22% Social Security
14% Health (What does this encompass?)
13% National Defense (Surprising)
13% Net Interest (OMFG!!!)
12% Medicare
11% Income Security (Sad)
05% Veterans Benefits and Services
03% Education, Training, Employment, and Social Services
02% Commerace and Housing Credit
02% Transportation
03% Other (Does this include Foreign Aid?)

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I would guess that all the increased Govt printing and spending money added at least 1%-2% to GDP

Quote:

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We know for a fact that after the election of 2008 how GDP is measured was changed to allow R&D expenses to be classified as "revenue", juicing the metric up by about 50bps going forward. So your baseline is a .50 reduction from any stated number

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Agreed.

So; 1.6% (GDP Growth) - 1%-2% (Additional Govt Printing & Spending) - 0.50% (R&D counted as producing) = +0.1% (Best Case) to -0.9% (Not Best Case)

Also, this admin has a long history of pumping up the numbers to look good so 1.6% might have been fudged to begin with.

BoydCrowder13 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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I do hate how some posters actively root for the US to fail.

---

I just want the lying to stop. Apparently wanting honest analysis (as is foundational to diagnosing issues and identifying corrective options) makes me a meanie?

Although, I will admit that I want the marxists and the uniparty to fail in their goals to screw up our once great nation. If being anti-establishment equates to being anti-US in your book… well… you may proceed with the saliva-based cleansing of tyrant's footwear.

---

I just roll my eyes at the Bill Maher "praying for a recession so Trump loses in 2020" mentality. Conservatives shouldn't have to wish ill on the economy to see Biden lose. He has done enough to lose without that.

As far as the economy goes, it is a weird time. Very few people are out of work. Corporations are posting good earnings (AI is helping out a good bit). We are probably in the next major technological boom.

On the other side, the debt is absolutely out of control. Interest rates and inflation are killing the middle class. Yet restaurants and concerts are still full. People are still traveling.

Depending on your income and net worth, this economy is either pretty good or horrific.

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Boyd, you're doing the Lord's work and I'm proud of you. I'm sure the board agrees with me.

Logos Stick said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

---

I do hate how some posters actively root for the US to fail.

---

I just want the lying to stop. Apparently wanting honest analysis (as is foundational to diagnosing issues and identifying corrective options) makes me a meanie?

Although, I will admit that I want the marxists and the uniparty to fail in their goals to screw up our once great nation. If being anti-establishment equates to being anti-US in your book… well… you may proceed with the saliva-based cleansing of tyrant's footwear.

---

I just roll my eyes at the Bill Maher "praying for a recession so Trump loses in 2020" mentality. Conservatives shouldn't have to wish ill on the economy to see Biden lose. He has done enough to lose without that.

As far as the economy goes, it is a weird time. Very few people are out of work. Corporations are posting good earnings (AI is helping out a good bit). We are probably in the next major technological boom.

On the other side, the debt is absolutely out of control. Interest rates and inflation are killing the middle class. Yet restaurants and concerts are still full. People are still traveling.

Depending on your income and net worth, this economy is either pretty good or horrific.

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Boyd, you're doing the Lord's work and I'm proud of you. I'm sure the board agrees with me.

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Neat, Bill Maher

Not trying to ruffle feathers, but wasn't inflation a problem under Reagan too? What was the cause of the problem then?

The killing of the middle class is part of the grand plan. You think it saddens the establishment folks to see the middle class struggling? These clowns wish ill on this economy every time the print another trillion to fund their pet projects, student loan handouts, and whatever foreign aid grift is the flavor of the day. These guys wish ill on the economy every time they write a new unicorn fart regulation that just makes every day life more and more expensive for the average American. These people don't need any help at all in the wish ill on this economy category.

BoydCrowder13 said:

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I do hate how some posters actively root for the US to fail.

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Their support of Biden and his anti-American policies is misguided, no doubt.

Rapier108 said:

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So given their propensity to boost the numbers, the GDP is probably barely above flat at best.

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Worse it probably actually shrank

But now that people are waking up to what's going on if there is another negative GDP there will be more talk of recession leading up to the election

BoydCrowder13 said:

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Get Off My Lawn said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

---

I do hate how some posters actively root for the US to fail.

---

I just want the lying to stop. Apparently wanting honest analysis (as is foundational to diagnosing issues and identifying corrective options) makes me a meanie?

Although, I will admit that I want the marxists and the uniparty to fail in their goals to screw up our once great nation. If being anti-establishment equates to being anti-US in your book… well… you may proceed with the saliva-based cleansing of tyrant's footwear.

---

I just roll my eyes at the Bill Maher "praying for a recession so Trump loses in 2020" mentality. Conservatives shouldn't have to wish ill on the economy to see Biden lose. He has done enough to lose without that.

As far as the economy goes, it is a weird time. Very few people are out of work. Corporations are posting good earnings (AI is helping out a good bit). We are probably in the next major technological boom.

On the other side, the debt is absolutely out of control. Interest rates and inflation are killing the middle class. Yet restaurants and concerts are still full. People are still traveling.

Depending on your income and net worth, this economy is either pretty good or horrific.

---

I'm not praying for a recession and I doubt most seriously are. I imagine most people want a strong economy. However when the government is doing things that as you point it is "killing the middle class" and despite that those in charge will receive massive support for simply having the correct part designation, it's hard not to point out why these consequences are happening to those that have been and probably are still in denial about what their choices actually support.

The government (especially the federal government) is not our friend, it does not look out for us, and those in charge of it will **** you over at the drop of a hat if it benefits themselves. It amazes me how many people allege they distrust the federal government but constantly support politicians that do nothing but expand it.

Table 1. Long-Run Economic Effects of President Biden's FY 2024 Budget
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -1.3%
Gross National Product (GNP) -1.5%
Capital Stock -2.4%
Wage Rate -1.0%
Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Jobs -335,000
Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, March 2023.
https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/biden-budget-tax-proposals-analysis/

"The economy is great...Pause..." - Joe Biden

Who would have thought inflating the money supply, record spending, crippling regulation's, and a wide open border would have shackled economic growth?

Rapier108 said:

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So given their propensity to boost the numbers, the GDP is probably barely above flat at best.

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Very true

FOUR MORE YEARS... (Pause)

BoydCrowder13 said:

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I do hate how some posters actively root for the US to fail.

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We're not rooting for it to fail.

We are seeing through the blatant propaganda being shoved down our throats.

We want our elected officials to actually acknowledge what the reality of our economic situation is.

Political elite and wealthy are so far insulated from day to day reality of the overwhelming majority that this perky "everything is fine" nonsense is blatant propaganda nonsense.

We're facing multiple years of 3% or more inflation year over year.

We're facing incredible housing shortages and ridiculous prices that is widening the gaps between the haves and have nots.

We have for the first time in a very long time a majority of younger generations at 30 being WORSE off financially than their parents were at 30.


Large swaths of the country are in 'uninsurable blackout' territories for property insurance because of rises in pricing and ********ery greed everywhere.

There is very little to 'celebrate' right now as positive news and outlook compared to 10 years ago. What in the **** do millennials and younger have to look forward to at this point?

I hope voters wake up, but smooth brains will keep voting for these clowns.

Biz Ag said:

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Dow down 660+ points today.

Let's go Brandon!

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i remember when a 1 week market correction instantly triggered RECESSION headlines......but this is still the GREATEST ECONOMY EVAR!