CSU Forecast for 2024 Hurricane Activity

ABATTBQ87

2:05p, 5/1/24

We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active.

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2024

We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active. Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions.

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season.

A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook.

We anticipate a well above-average probability of major hurricanes landing along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

O.G.

2:08p, 5/1/24

They say this every year.

Worst year ever....

Then if it happens, we told you so. If it doesn't happen, "we dodged a bullet". ....but no matter what, keep funding us.

Hoyt Ag

2:29p, 5/1/24

In reply to O.G.

O.G. said:
They say this every year.

Worst year ever....

Then if it happens, we told you so. If it doesn't happen, "we dodged a bullet". ....but no matter what, keep funding us.

LoudestWHOOP!

3:55p, 5/1/24

In reply to Hoyt Ag

Hoyt Ag said:
O.G. said:
They say this every year.

Worst year ever....

Then if it happens, we told you so. If it doesn't happen, "we dodged a bullet". ....but no matter what, keep funding us.

This is also an election year, if they do have a weather machine it will be running almost as hot as the printing presses down at the Treasury Mint.

Deerdude

5:39p, 5/1/24

In reply to LoudestWHOOP!

LoudestWHOOP! said:
Hoyt Ag said:
O.G. said:
They say this every year.

Worst year ever....

Then if it happens, we told you so. If it doesn't happen, "we dodged a bullet". ....but no matter what, keep funding us.
This is also an election year, if they do have a weather machine it will be running almost as hot as the printing presses down at the Treasury Mint.

I'm calling BS. Nothing can run as fast as the money presses. But I agree with the sentiment.

Ag97

5:44p, 5/1/24

Have they ever predicted a below normal hurricane year? They would be more believable if every now and they they throw in a prediction on the lower side. This is how you know they have an agenda and it's all about them driving fear to support their funding. It's the reason they come up with terms like "bomb cyclone" and started naming winter storms. If they keep people afraid they can ask for and justify their funding.

terradactylexpress

6:02p, 5/1/24

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/tracking-the-tropics-how-accurate-are-hurricane-season-forecasts/

This is a few years out of date but seems like CSU consistently is under forecasting storms

TikkaShooter

7:33p, 5/1/24

In reply to O.G.

Quote:
They say this every year.

Worst year ever....

Then if it happens, we told you so. If it doesn't happen, "we dodged a bullet". ....but no matter what, keep funding us.

Actually, CSU doesn't say this every year. They are pretty darn accurate.

So, you're wrong.

Hoyt Ag

7:47p, 5/1/24

In reply to TikkaShooter

TikkaShooter said:
Quote:
They say this every year.

Worst year ever....

Then if it happens, we told you so. If it doesn't happen, "we dodged a bullet". ....but no matter what, keep funding us.

Actually, CSU doesn't say this every year. They are pretty darn accurate.

So, you're wrong.

Show your work.

fullback44

7:48p, 5/1/24

The will have the "chem trails" button on this fall

TikkaShooter

7:51p, 5/1/24

In reply to Hoyt Ag

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-11.pdf

This is a summary of the 2023 season.

However, if you scroll down to page 41 of the report, you will see CSUs prediction data layered with the actual storm data, from 1984 to 2023.

Work shown

TikkaShooter

8:06p, 5/1/24

OnlyForNow

8:47p, 5/1/24

In reply to terradactylexpress

What was last years prediction? Cuz I feel like they missed it bigly

mwlkr

9:17p, 5/1/24

In reply to TikkaShooter

TikkaShooter said:

OP is talking hurricanes. CSU is plotting "named storms." A named storm is 39 mph sustained winds. Big difference.

Micropterus

9:19p, 5/1/24

Member when el nino wasn't a thing? I do.

normaleagle05

9:31p, 5/1/24

In reply to TikkaShooter

Comparing the August forecast results to the observed storms and claiming it represents the April forecast results is similar to planning your weekend based on Sunday morning's forecast for next Saturday while ignoring Thursday evening's forecast for the next 48 hours.

TikkaShooter

6:40a, 5/2/24

In reply to normaleagle05

Lol.

Thats not what CSU does, nor was I claiming that the April forecast is the end all be all.

CSU updates their forecast monthly, until their final comes out in August. See photo below. The graph that I posted above - the one where CSU compares their forecast to the actual - is done with the August forecast.

Example from 2023 to show how their month to month forecast changed up until their final prediction in August.

There are no "science shenanigans" here. As much as so many want there to be. CSU is about as transparent with their data as possible. Sorry if that rains on the media conspiracy parade, like the *57* posters who starred the response to the OP.

*up to 70 wow lots of people that can't read

TikkaShooter

6:41a, 5/2/24

In reply to mwlkr

CSU predicts all of the above.

Read the reports before posting.

INIGO MONTOYA

7:38a, 5/2/24

They admit that the increase in storms are due to more
Monitoring. Not many people say that when making their arguments.

TikkaShooter

7:46a, 5/2/24

In reply to INIGO MONTOYA

Yep. Very good info in the reports, but I doubt most here will read through them.

ttha_aggie_09

7:49a, 5/2/24

I'm just waiting for all of those super hurricanes to hit us regularly like Al Gore told us would happen. All of the polar bears already drowned and the hockey stick graph came true, so his track record is phenomenal!

Ever wondered why they had to rebrand Global Warming to Climate Change? Yet we still have folks that blindly think the "science is settled", despite all of the evidence to the contrary.

Fishing Fools

8:03a, 5/2/24

As long as all this happens b4 Football season.

TikkaShooter

8:04a, 5/2/24

In reply to ttha_aggie_09

What are your thoughts on the CSU data? The actual topic of this thread.

TikkaShooter

8:27a, 5/2/24

Got pretty quiet in here once everyone was out of Hannity quotes.

Shocker.

Jbob04

8:45a, 5/2/24

In reply to TikkaShooter

I think everyone gets tired of arguing with a liberal.

ttha_aggie_09

8:52a, 5/2/24

In reply to TikkaShooter

You're the one that introduced the comment about science shenanigans and I responded as to why most people with a brain know those science shenanigans are a real thing - especially when grants and funding is given out by a government with a very clear agenda... don't tow the line, don't get any funding.

As to the specific data listed from CSU, I haven't taken a deep enough dive into it to make a strong determination one way or the other. I respect that they actually list their predictions vs the results.

ttha_aggie_09

8:53a, 5/2/24

In reply to Jbob04

Jbob04 said:
I think everyone gets tired of arguing with a liberal.

ABATTBQ87

8:54a, 5/2/24

In reply to Fishing Fools

Fishing Fools said:
As long as all this happens b4 Football season.

unfortunately, hurricanes are more apt to hit the southern US in September, disrupting early football season games, especially in Florida

TikkaShooter

9:02a, 5/2/24

In reply to ttha_aggie_09

Quote:
As to the specific data listed from CSU, I haven't taken a deep enough dive into it to make a strong determination one way or the other. I respect that they actually list their predictions vs the results.

Cool. Thanks for responding to my question

maverick12

9:11a, 5/2/24

In reply to terradactylexpress

terradactylexpress said:
https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/tracking-the-tropics-how-accurate-are-hurricane-season-forecasts/

This is a few years out of date but seems like CSU consistently is under forecasting storms

This is interesting. It seems to indicate that NOAA's forecasts have been a bit more accurate than CSU's.

INIGO MONTOYA

9:26a, 5/2/24

seems like a "forecast" almost half-way through the season is no longer a forecast. i'd like it better if they just re-forecasted the balance of the season - but not that big of a deal.

problem with the topic of global warming is finding someone who will present the information in a balanced way. lots of shrill voices on both sides..

Deerdude

9:33a, 5/2/24

I prefer they more accurately call it a WAG or SWAG.

My Austin weather guessers and sensationalist are correct maybe 40% or less although they are basing guesses on an area 175 miles east/west and 60 miles north /south.

TikkaShooter

9:38a, 5/2/24

In reply to Jbob04

I'm just putting up CSU charts and data, as a reference point to show that, no, it isn't always "WoRst SeaSOn EVeR!". What CSU published is pretty darn transparent.

But if name calling makes you feel better, then that's fine too.

Lonestar-aught-six

5:42p, 5/2/24

I know the most important thing I can do in the event of a hurricane is to… get the shot.

O.G.

7:41a, 5/3/24

In reply to Lonestar-aught-six

Lonestar-aught-six said:
I know the most important thing I can do in the event of a hurricane is to… get the shot.

.......the best way to prepare for the hurricane is to be vaxxed.......