The question I have is… which housing market between these two is in the best long term position for appreciation?
This blip over the last year facing the greater Austin housing market feels temporary to me, and may be a signal it's a good time to buy.

If you had to make a decision today as a first time home buyer, based on expected real estate appreciation only, where you buying between these 2?

Yea I'm thinking suburbs/north Austin

Southwest Austin is a good bet as well.

5 year time frame- College Station. 20 year- Austin.

DFW is so big its an impossible question to answer.

Fixer upper in Arlington? Bungalow close to lot value in wealthy Dallas neighborhood? New build in far north exurb? New condo in Fort Worth?

In reply to Serotonin Let's say a FW suburb / a new build in Roanoke area compared to Round Rock/Cedar Park/ Georgetown suburb outside Austin

It's hard to say because living in a North Austin suburb, it feels like things have stagnated while we wait for the Legislature to figure out education. The bottom is going to fall out of Round Rock, Georgetown, Pflugerville, Hutto if public education crashes. People will move at that point. I think the Dallas area except for some of the fringe suburbs absorbs drastic education changes easier.

Thanks everyone, keep those perspectives coming please

In terms of job growth outlook, between north Texas, north Austin, and greater Houston, these all appear to be good options and a wash for the most part.

Not looking to veer off topic, but what's the concern with Wilco public schools? Is it the book issue where funds were withheld a few years ago? I was educated in Texas, but that was years ago and I'm not caught up on the latest.
Feels like a public school fallout in that county would be detrimental.

FWIW, I've lived in red, blue, and swing states. As a Texan I prefer red, but I found that the public education offerings in each weren't markedly different from the others at the end of the day

Austin, the city itself, isn't geographically very big and with all the greenbelt you can't build on there is only so much development that can happen. I think you will see a continued rise in prices in Austin compared to Dallas or Houston long term but Texas will continue to grow for many reasons.