Warrennolan is showing a nice 10 spot jump up to #53. Would expect to be around there when boyd updates in the morning.

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RPI report says 8-7 to be top 45 RPI so 9-6 would do it and 8-7 would put us on the bubble if everything fell right.

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It all depends on where our wins come from, too. After the Rice win, If we beat Texas State and SHSU, and go 5-7 in SEC play to finish 13-17, there's little chance we make the postseason. We have to get some SEC series wins over the last 4 weekends.

I'd blast basketball for being negative, but less than 14-16 is going to be a major problem minus a deep SEC tourny run.

Fortunately, 6-6 is doable. Not probable, but definitely doable.

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and go 5-7 in SEC play to finish 13-17, there's little chance we make the postseason

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We were in that predicament last season going into the SEC tourney. We were 13-16 with an RPI in the upper 40's. We got a couple of wins in the SEC tourney and got a 2 seed. Florida also got into the NCAA tourney last year with a 14-16 conference record (29-27 overall) even with their tailspin at the end of the season (4-8 in last 12 regular season games and going 1 and Q in the SEC tourney).

Being in the #1 RPI conference (and it's a big gap over #2 Big 12) can do wonders for getting in teams with conference records a few games or less under .500.

The SEC is the strongest that it has ever been. There are 9 teams in the top 25 poll I saw in the newspaper today. I think a 13-17 team can make it in this year. But I recognize that the ncaa is a commie organization and they like to spread the bids around.

I'm hoping this team puts it together and goes on a run in May and June.

After the road win over Rice, big jump up to #52 in today's Boyd's ratings. Gotta get two road wins at #35 Mississippi State this weekend. The window is still open, albeit just a tiny bit. I think we're going to have to get to an RPI of around 30-34 to be considered for an at-large selection.




But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. – Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)

After A&M's win over Rice, the Owls slipped to #11 in the RPI. Here's the updated results chart for the Ags:


Against Wednesday's RPI, we are:

2-2 vs. Top 10...4 games remain

7-7 vs. #11-50...5 games remain

1-6 vs. #51-100 (ouch)...5 games remain

4-1 vs. #101-200...0 games remain

10-1 vs. #200+...0 games remain


Something I didn't really catch on to the other day is Columbia is in the top 50 of the RPI. Didn't think much of that game at the time, but that seemingly meaningless Tuesday game has given the Ags another top 50 win. Not sure if they'll stay in the top 50, but they should stay in the top 100.




But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. – Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)

A&M slipped ahead of both #55 Auburn and #59 Georgia. And the Ags remain ahead of the 1st place team in the Big 12: #56 OSU

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A&M slipped ahead of both #55 Auburn and #59 Georgia.

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That's good news. Arkansas is within striking distance (47) and we still have a series with them. MissSt (35) could probably be jumped if we can somehow win a series in Starkville. And UT (31) needs to go ahead and begin to freefall any time now.

This is how I see it. I really don't think more than ten from the SEC will make it. Right now we are 11th. I don't see Miss St. faltering even if we somehow take two of three.

To me that means we need to go 6-6, 2-0, beat Arkansas 2 of 3, and stay ahead of Arkansas in the RPI and standings.

Another way to get in the top 10 in the SEC is the wheels coming off at Tenn.

They are at LSU, Kentucky, at Miss St, and Florida. They could be like 3-9 down the stretch, eliminating them.

So bottom line after the Rice game.

Rice loses 3 points to #11.

A&M gains 9 points to # 53.


[This message has been edited by Aggies (edited 4/23/2014 10:57a).]

TN is in trouble. After starting 18-2, they have gone 7-12. They are 7-11 in conference and project to be 12-18.

I have A&M at #10 in the SEC, currently 1 conference game on the wrong side of the bubble. Going 14-16 in SEC play will get us in. At 13-17 we will need to win a game or two in the tourney.

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Going 14-16 in SEC play will get us in.

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In a normal year, I'd say that's a good bet. Up until beating Rice last night, I'd have said, probably not. Right now, I'd say we'd still have work to do at Hoover if we go 14-16.

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In a normal year, I'd say that's a good bet

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We went as a #2 seed with a 13-16 record last year. The SEC is slightly stronger this year then last year.

We aren't a great team (yet), but we beat #1 Florida 2 out of 3. So we can play at a high level. The problem we have is that everytime we fix a problem, another problem springs up, like Mengden suddenly struggling. If we can continue to fight and get all of our problems fixed over the next month, then this team could do very well.

For reference, in Boyd's ISR rankings our Strength of Schedule is #42. That's respectable but will likely improve over the next few weeks as we play all Top 100 RPI teams to end the season.

Other SoS numbers...

Top 10:

1. Stanford
2. California
3. San Jose State
4. Arizona State
5. Florida
6. Cal State-Fullerton
7. Hawaii
8. Long Beach State
9. Utah
10. Fresno State

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The rest of the SEC:

22. Kentucky
30. Georgia
32. Vanderbilt
42. Texas A&M
47. Tennessee
51. Missouri
61. Alabama
62. Arkansas
66. Auburn
67. Mississippi State
81. South Carolina
53. Mississippi
97. LSU

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Others of note:

11. Baylor
12. Texas
19. Rice
20. TCU
33. Houston
37. Texas Tech
110. Oklahoma
115. Oklahoma State (current Big 12 leader)




But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. – Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)

Ags #47

And our SoS is up to #36 after a game against Rice and 2 vs. MSU. Regardless of our W-L record down the stretch, that number will continue to improve.

Looking at the RPI needs report...

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Texas A&M

Remaining: 8 home, 4 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 47
ROWP: 0.650

Top 45:

2 home wins, 4 road wins
3 home wins, 3 road wins
4 home wins, 2 road wins
5 home wins, 1 road wins
6 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 32:

4 home wins, 4 road wins
5 home wins, 3 road wins
6 home wins, 2 road wins
7 home wins, 1 road wins
8 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 16:

No way to reach the threshold.

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...it's not much of a stretch for us to make the top 45, but, as I've said, that's unlikely to cut it for an SEC team in our position (weak OOC schedule and results). To get to 32, where we would be pretty much a lock, we'd probably need to win all our remaining series (win today vs. MSU, then 2 of 3 from LSU, Arkansas, and Ole Miss). That's a tall order. If we get to Hoover with an RPI around 40, we might have a chance to play our way in with a strong showing at Hoover, like winning 3 games or more.

One interesting note: if the season ended today, #30 RPI Tennessee would miss the SEC tournament.

Twk-You are being way too harsh. If we go 6-4, 2-0, I'd be shocked if we don't get in. Ten SEC teams are getting in and we'd be top 10.

Let me try again.
1-0 MSU
1-2 LSU
2-1 ark
1-2 ole miss
2-0 non conf
That will do it!

Despite recent road wins over Rice and MSU, or margin for error is still razor thin. And we're making a HUGE (possibly unrealistic) assumption the Ags don't slip up and lose to Texas State and/or Sam Houston.

With losses to La. Tech and Sacramento State and a sweep at the hands of Fresno State, the committee will be looking for reasons to leave us out, not looking for ways to get us in.

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Let me try again.
1-0 MSU
1-2 LSU
2-1 ark
1-2 ole miss
2-0 non conf
That will do it!

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That would put us in the low 40s heading to Hoover. That's anything but a shoe in. There is no quota for conference teams--they don't decide that they are going to take 10 SEC and then just take the top 10 in the standings (or RPI--and we might not be top 10 in RPI even if we're top 10 in the standings).

Luke-I don't assume anything with this team. No doubt. But the way I look at it is, if the Ags lose a Tuesday game or get swept on a weekend, it's all moot and we can move on with life.

Twk-I know there is no quota and the NCAA is the most ridiculous organization outside the Olympic committee, BUT, the SEC is clearly the number one league in the country numerically by even more than last season and last year the SEC got ten teams.

I feel confident that will happen again. Thus, top ten in SEC will be in a regional.

As long as we make the sec tournament we can lose both Tuesday games. Tourney Champion still gets in.

Rebel-you are talking in absolutes. A lot of things COULD happen. There are 100 different scenarios, but RPI would take a massive hit with a Tuesday loss, for sure.

Rebel's point was SEC tourney champion is an auto-bid - at least that's what I think his point was.

yep

As good as the SEC always is, I think it is almost harder to win the SEC tournament than go to the World Series. In years we have to count on that, we are in big trouble. The good news is that most teams that make the SEC tourney, make a regional!

We're waking up Sunday morning to an RPI of 41. Nice 24 point jump from where we were Monday. We still have lots of work to do, but the potential for at-large consideration is better than it was a week ago.

If we continue to play well, we now have a real chance to be a high 2 seed. That is amazing something I would have thought impossible a few weeks ago.

I really don't care what seed we are or where we are sent, as long as we get in. We've beaten Rice at their place, scored a load of runs on Cougar High, and tu was swept by TCU. Just bringg on a fun regional weekend and keep bashing the ball! Lots of work to do first though to get there.

[This message has been edited by TempleAg97 (edited 4/27/2014 9:44a).]

Great to be finally pushing the top 40. Have to keep winning though. Need to be around #35 to feel really secure about an at-large bid.

From a standpoint of positioning within the conference, the Ags are ahead of State now. Also still in front of Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, and Mizzou

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I really don't care what seed we are or where we are sent, as long as we get in. We've beaten Rice at their place, scored a load of runs on Cougar High, and tu was swept by TCU. Just bringg on a fun regional weekend and keep bashing the ball! Lots of work to do first though to get there.

[This message has been edited by TempleAg97 (edited 4/27/2014 9:44a).]

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Get in and anything can happen. I always look back at OSU (1st year I think) and Fresno. Neither had any business making it out of the regional and they both brought home the championship belt.