Series Preview: No. 1 Ags battle No. 20 Dawgs as SEC stretch run begins

Who: No. 20 Georgia Bulldogs (30-10, 9-9 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:

Friday: 6 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 2 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Sunday: 1 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)

Pitching Matchups

Friday: LHP Ryan Prager (7-0, 2.55 ERA) vs. RHP Leighton Finley (3-1, 5.27 ERA)
Saturday: RHP Tanner Jones (3-1, 4.67 ERA) vs. Matthew Hoskins (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Sunday: TBA vs. TBA

Scouting Georgia

The Georgia Bulldogs are offensive to say the least, no pun intended. It’s also quite surprising given the heralded pitching background of first-year head coach Wes Johnson, who helped lead LSU to a national title last season as the pitching coach. He also worked with pitchers at Arkansas, Mississippi State and even the Minnesota Twins for a stint. However, his first team at Georgia is all about offensive firepower and several big sticks in the lineup.

You can’t start a discussion about the Bulldogs’ production at the plate without first mentioning the top power hitter in all of college baseball, Charlie Condon. The former walk-on leads the nation in home runs (26) and leads the SEC in batting average (.477), slugging percentage (1.097) and OBP (1.670). He has a head-shaking 43 extra-base hits through 40 games. For comparison, Braden Montgomery leads the Aggies in slugging percentage at .890, followed by Jace LaViolette at .815. It’s hard to imagine another collegiate player having a more explosive season than Montgomery or Laviolette, but there you have it. The latest MLB Draft projections list Condon as the odds-on-favorite to be the first overall pick in June.

© Cyndi Chambers / USA TODAY NETWORK

Condon is just two home runs away from breaking Georgia's career HR record in only two seasons.

But this hitting lineup is a lot more than just Condon, who hits in the No. 2 spot in the order, much like LaViolette. Leading off and batting in front of the future first-round draft pick is Corey Collins, who is hitting at a .387 clip with 12 homers and a slugging percentage of .817 (higher than LaViolette). Batting behind Condon is another double-digit home run slugger, Slate Alford, with 11 bombs and 49 RBI. In fact, Georgia loves the long ball with five Bulldogs in the lineup with double-digit home runs so far in 2024. Add in the forecast for a brisk 15 to 20 mph south wind blowing out at Olsen Field for the weekend, and you can see the challenge Texas A&M pitching has in front of them.

Luckily, Texas A&M’s offensive statistics match Georgia’s explosive numbers, as you can see below. In fact, the similarities are uncanny. In terms of SEC offensive rank, both Georgia and Texas A&M fall in the top three of almost every major statistical category, including batting average (A&M 2, Georgia 3), runs scored (A&M 2, Georgia 3), slugging percentage (Georgia 2, A&M 3) and on-base percentage (Georgia 1, A&M 2).

Generally speaking, Aggie baseball has had a significant advantage over its opponents at the plate this season. That is definitely not the case this weekend. These are two explosive, evenly-matched offenses going at it starting Friday.

The same can’t be said for the two pitching staffs, and that’s why Texas A&M is No. 1 in the nation, and Georgia is No. 20. The Aggies have a pretty significant advantage on the mound if the season statistics hold true to form in this series.

Georgia sports a team ERA of 5.08 and ranks in the lower half of the SEC in most statistical pitching categories ranking ninth in ERA, No. 10 in opponent batting average, and near the bottom of the league at No. 12 in walks allowed. The Bulldogs have given up 54 more free passes than the Aggies this season.

Georgia’s starting rotation has been in flux throughout SEC play. Right-hander Leighton Finley (3-1, 5.27 ERA) is scheduled to start on Friday. He has been a mainstay on the weekends but recently slid into the important Friday role without your typical Friday night starter stat line. The biggest mystery of the weekend will be sophomore righty Matthew Hoskins taking the ball in game two on Saturday. As a freshman, he showed a lot of promise with mid-90s velocity and a nice array of off-speed stuff. However, his season was cut short due to injury, and he had Tommy John surgery. Almost a year to the day of his last outing in 2023, Hoskins made his season debut last weekend, starting against Ole Miss. He threw one scoreless inning and was relieved. I assume he’ll still be on a very limited pitch count, but otherwise, it’s hard to project how he will perform against a formidable Texas A&M offense.

It’s possible game three could be pushed up to Saturday due to the threat of bad weather on Sunday. That will leave both coaches scrambling, which is one reason why Georgia has not announced a starter for the game. The other reason is Wes Johnson doesn’t have many good options at this point. Christian Mracna (3-2, 4.24 ERA) was a mainstay in the starting rotation early in the season until recently after some struggles. Charlie Goldstein has had success this season (4-0, 3.58 ERA), but he’s battling shoulder fatigue, and he’s been on a strict pitch count recently.

If the Bulldogs can grab a late lead, they do have a quality closer in Brian Zeldin (2.10 ERA, 5 saves). After that, the bullpen numbers start to drop off significantly. If the Aggies can score early and get into the Georgia bullpen, it could be a long series for the visitors.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

When you have two explosive teams going at it in a 15 to 20 mph south wind blowing out to the outfield, there are going to be plenty of home runs and deep gappers. That’s just a fact. The key for the Aggie pitching staff is to not be intimidated by the power potential and wind. Just throw strikes.

In a game like this, accept the fact that some balls will leave the yard. Just make sure there aren’t two to three runners on base when a homer is hit. Giving up several solo homers will not beat this Aggie team. It’s a different story if the pitchers try to get too cute nibbling around the zone, walk a few batters, and then give up a couple of three-run bombs early in the contest. This could be the biggest storyline of the game and the biggest advantage in this series for the Maroon & White. A&M pitching is one of the best staffs in the SEC, throwing strikes and avoiding the base-on-balls, ranking second in the league. As I mentioned earlier, Georgia is near the bottom of the conference in walks allowed. If Aggie hitters stay patient, Bulldog pitchers will put men on base, and then, hopefully, it is Texas A&M hitting the multi-run home runs instead of solo shots. I think walks will ultimately determine the outcome of this weekend.

Will Huffman, TexAgs

In Lamkin’s last Sunday outing, he pitched 1.2 innings, giving up five runs.

While Jim Schlossnagle has not officially named a game three starter, he hinted on TexAgs Radio that he’s leaning toward giving Justin Lamkin another start after several underwhelming outings. They worked on his early-inning mental approach during the week and gave him a brief one-inning stint on Tuesday against Houston. It would be huge for this team going forward if Lamkin can regain his form and solidify his role as the Sunday starter. If this team plans to make a long postseason run in June, they will need him to deliver solid performances and go at least five innings in most starts.

For those who remember reliever Scott Beerer years ago, he was a dominant closer in the first half of the season. But with few trusted bullpen resources that year, Beerer was called upon quite often. He physically wore down and was not the same pitcher by postseason action. This year’s bullpen has been taxed in recent weeks due to some middle inning struggles by the weekend rotation, so the starting pitchers need to avoid early, big innings, and take some of the burden off primary weekend relievers Evan Aschenbeck, Chris Cortez and Shane Sdao. So far, it’s not a deep bullpen for Texas A&M. The solution is either longer starts, or finding another front-line trusted bullpen arm to ease the burden. The starting rotation needs to give the team at least 16 innings per weekend, and no better time to start than this weekend.

There’s really not much to say about what A&M needs to do at the plate that they don’t do already. The hitters have to stay the course with the philosophy of being patient at the plate. If balls start flying out of the park for both teams, the players can’t get too anxious and too greedy swinging for the fence with a 20 mph wind at their back. The approach and the mentality must be the same. Wait for a pitch in the zone to drive, swing smoothly, and let the bat and the wind take care of the rest. If A&M plays within itself and limits free passes and miscues in the field, there’s a good chance the Aggies can win another SEC series and maybe more.

What’s at stake this weekend

As D1Baseball’s Kendall Rogers mentioned Wednesday on TexAgs Radio, a series win this weekend against another ranked SEC team and the possibility of earning a coveted national seed starts looking more like a probability. 

Sure, the SEC regular season conference title is still well within reach, and it would be great if the Aggies could get the home sweep and really put pressure on Kentucky and Arkansas for the crown.

With that said the ultimate goal is winning it all in Omaha and bringing back Aggieland its first baseball national championship. This team has the talent to do it. Well, you can’t win it all in Omaha unless you get to Omaha, and earning a national seed makes that path to Nebraska so much easier playing in the postseason at home in the friendly confines of Olsen Field in front of a rabid Aggie baseball fan base.

With the next two weekend series on the road and a home finale against a very tough No. 2 Arkansas squad, the stakes are pretty high for the No. 1 Aggies to take care of business and beat No. 20 Georgia. At a minimum, you’d like to see a series win, but a sweep and playing baseball at Blue Bell Park in June looks more and more likely.