In reply to Ag_0112358132134

Ag_0112358132134 said:

---

texagbeliever said:

---

Ag_0112358132134 said:

---

Very informative OP. It seems like most people on this board don't realize that this country is about to go irreversibly democrat in both houses of Congress and in the White House. After the next 4 years of complete democrat control, the elections will be so rigged, it won't matter if 90% of the population comes to its senses and starts voting Republican. The left will manufacture the votes they need to maintain control, and anybody questioning it will get a visit from the FBI.

There is not much we can do about it at this point, but everybody needs to be aware so they can plan accordingly.

---

This post makes no sense.

Everything is lost if we lose 2024. But instead of a call to do everything you can in 2024 the call is to give up and concede defeat. Quite the loser mentality.

---

I'm definitely not advocating that we concede defeat. Everybody should go vote and give it their all.

But pretty much all of the swing states are now controlled by dems, and they will manufacture the votes they need. Republicans haven't made a dent in mail in voting or cleaning up the voter rolls. Even in Texas we have not done nearly enough to ensure a Cruz victory. Obviously everyone should go vote, but it's mostly out of our hands at this point.

---

How sure are you about the last paragraph? 99%, 90%, 50%.
If you are wrong is stating that helping or hurting your desired outcome?

In reply to Rockdoc

Rockdoc said:

---

If Trump COULD have learned how to control his social media and control his mouth, he'd be president right now.

---

I think that had "some" to do with it. I think he should have definitely won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin

I think he lost those by a combined 56k votes.

But how many of those votes were fraudulent?

Trump got around 8 million more votes than he did in 2016, so his mouth didn't turn many voters away. Bigger question is how much did the Dems cheat to get to 81 million and was that the main reason?

In reply to 2023NCAggies

Quote:

---

But how many of those votes were fraudulent?

---

Not nearly enough to change the outcome of the election.

The worst thing Trump ever did was convince the masses that he actually won the election.

For the record and before some of yall go completely off the rails, the OP is just pushing BS propaganda.

The polls in 2022 were some of the most accurate in recent history, showing a D bias nationally of 0.8%.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

And yes, Nate Silver is, in fact, a Democrat.

Pretty interesting stuff for those that are truly interested in the art of polling

In reply to agsalaska

agsalaska said:

---

Quote:

---

But how many of those votes were fraudulent?

---

Not nearly enough to change the outcome of the election.

The worst thing Trump ever did was convince the masses that he actually won the election.

---

You do not think they cheated enough to beat him by 12k in Arizona, 12k in Georgia and 20k in Wisconsin?

That isn't a lot of votes

Again 75 million 4 years after getting 67 million, That is a lot more votes for his mouth to singly cause him the election

Yet Biden got 81 million votes, 16 million more than Obama did in 2012 lol and you do not think they cheated enough? Give me a break. 81 vs 65 for Obama is enough proof for me

In reply to 2023NCAggies Thats just a ridiculous post all the way around.

I will move on if you will. Please. DOn't ruin the internet for me today. Let's just move on. Please.

We are also wayyy off topic.

In reply to 2023NCAggies

2023NCAggies said:

---

Rockdoc said:

---

If Trump COULD have learned how to control his social media and control his mouth, he'd be president right now.

---

I think that had "some" to do with it. I think he should have definitely won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin

I think he lost those by a combined 56k votes.

But how many of those votes were fraudulent?

Trump got around 8 million more votes than he did in 2016, so his mouth didn't turn many voters away. Bigger question is how much did the Dems cheat to get to 81 million and was that the main reason?

---

The dems cheated "just enough" to win. That's why all the delays and pipe bursting, etc. my point was if trump had been totally civil they wouldn't have been able to cheat that much.

In reply to policywonk98

policywonk98 said:

---

Florida GOP was actually turning things around and was over performing prior to DeSantis. His leadership has just taken it to an even higher level.


I am worried that state GOPs in swing states are in too much disarray to perform at expectations or overperform vs. polling data.


Money seems to be a big issue.

---

don't worry my friend-

Lara Trump is on it!

In reply to LMCane

LMCane said:

---

policywonk98 said:

---

Florida GOP was actually turning things around and was over performing prior to DeSantis. His leadership has just taken it to an even higher level.


I am worried that state GOPs in swing states are in too much disarray to perform at expectations or overperform vs. polling data.


Money seems to be a big issue.

---

don't worry my friend-

Lara Trump is on it!

---

Agreed. That's a good thing!

In reply to agsalaska

agsalaska said:

---

What about the other 2022 elections?

---

In reply to Rockdoc

Rockdoc said:

---

2023NCAggies said:

---

Rockdoc said:

---

If Trump COULD have learned how to control his social media and control his mouth, he'd be president right now.

---

I think that had "some" to do with it. I think he should have definitely won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin

I think he lost those by a combined 56k votes.

But how many of those votes were fraudulent?

Trump got around 8 million more votes than he did in 2016, so his mouth didn't turn many voters away. Bigger question is how much did the Dems cheat to get to 81 million and was that the main reason?

---

The dems cheated "just enough" to win. That's why all the delays and pipe bursting, etc. my point was if trump had been totally civil they wouldn't have been able to cheat that much.

---

I agree there and was going to say that. And is the reason I am predicting he wins this go around. I do not think the motivation is high enough on the Dem side, and they have to deal with RFK, West and Stein.

Not only will they take Bidens votes, they will take some of their cheaters or mules

In reply to agsalaska Apples and oranges. Silver is including generic ballot results. They can be really accurate in the aggregate, but miss on the important battleground seats where control is won.

In reply to ImSoDumb

ImSoDumb said:

---

Apples and oranges. Silver is including generic ballot results. They can be really accurate in the aggregate, but miss on the important battleground seats where control is won.

---

That is a gross oversimplification of what Silver does. It also does not change the fact that the original OP is just cherry picked data.

I've got to get back to work y'all have fun.

For what it's worth if the election was today I would guess 55-45 Trump wins. But all of the visible tailwinds are on Biden's side. Unless something unexpected happens I think it'll be 65-35 Biden on election day. But plenty of time for something unexpected to happen.

In reply to Gordo14

Gordo14 said:

---

For what it's worth if the election was today I would guess 55-45 Trump wins. But all of the visible tailwinds are on Biden's side. Unless something unexpected happens I think it'll be 65-35 Biden on election day. But plenty of time for something unexpected to happen.

---

What are all the visible tailwinds for Biden exactly?

Immigration, Inflation, job market (hiring freezes are pretty open, SGA budgets are getting cut), and crime is not going to magically go away.

In reply to Gordo14 Biden has no tailwinds unless it's flatulence. You'll have to explain.

[If all you're going to do is troll then take some extended time off -- Staff]

In reply to agsalaska

agsalaska said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

agsalaska said:

---

What about the other 2022 elections?

---

No idea on specifics but...

we had record inflation and the House is pretty much 50-50 now.

There was no red wave, which was predicted. Demographics and morality in this country have changed significantly.

---

It just appears cherry picked to me.


As for the red wave, not really. It was being predicted by Fox, Hannity, Trump, and others.

A lot of professional pollsters were skeptical at best.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/

---

Many trusted, independent pollsters were predicting it, as they should have give record inflation! That's what the OP is all about! The polls were wrong!

Anyone with a brain would have predicted it given record inflation and a war. But it was not to be. More proof that the country is toast!

You know how many seats the Rs picked up in 2010? Obama's first mid term? 60!!!!!!

In reply to Gordo14

Gordo14 said:

---

For what it's worth if the election was today I would guess 55-45 Trump wins. But all of the visible tailwinds are on Biden's side. Unless something unexpected happens I think it'll be 65-35 Biden on election day. But plenty of time for something unexpected to happen.

---

What tail winds?

For the life of me I can't figure out how anyone could look around at this current **** sandwich and go to the booth and vote for more of it.

In reply to Some Junkie Cosmonaut

Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

For what it's worth if the election was today I would guess 55-45 Trump wins. But all of the visible tailwinds are on Biden's side. Unless something unexpected happens I think it'll be 65-35 Biden on election day. But plenty of time for something unexpected to happen.

---

What tail winds?

For the life of me I can't figure out how anyone could look around at this current **** sandwich and go to the booth and vote for more of it.

---

Only possible ones that come to mind:
1. Stock market (this is a stretch in my opinion)
2. Ukraine war ending
3. Israel-Hamas peace deal
4. EO ridding college debt

Seriously I can't think of anything else. Abortion has lost steam. The Stock market is already at ATH. With Japan and UK officially in recessions I'm wondering if the US market didn't get propped up by people abandoning faster sinking ships.
Really Ukraine war I don't see how a true decisive victory is possible and Israel-Hamas is more likely to get more heated than cool off in my opinion.

In reply to Logos Stick The Rs ran terrible candidates in many if not most of the purple areas. Then it was all about ground game.

The GOP leadership in Florida, California, Nevada, and New York were organized, ran strong ground games, and promoted candidates that could actually win the purple districts.

Then you have almost everywhere else.

In reply to Logos Stick

Logos Stick said:

---

agsalaska said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

agsalaska said:

---

What about the other 2022 elections?

---

No idea on specifics but...

we had record inflation and the House is pretty much 50-50 now.

There was no red wave, which was predicted. Demographics and morality in this country have changed significantly.

---

It just appears cherry picked to me.


As for the red wave, not really. It was being predicted by Fox, Hannity, Trump, and others.

A lot of professional pollsters were skeptical at best.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/

---

Many trusted, independent pollsters were predicting it, as they should have give record inflation! That's what the OP is all about! The polls were wrong!

Anyone with a brain would have predicted it given record inflation and a war. But it was not to be. More proof that the country is toast!

You know how many seats the Rs picked up in 2010? Obama's first mid term? 60!!!!!!

---

They were not wrong. You were mislead.

Again, do some further reading.

In reply to FireAg

FireAg said:

---

The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:

If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:

At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...

---

LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.

In reply to NoahAg

NoahAg said:

---

FireAg said:

---

The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:

If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:

At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...

---

LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.

---

These are averages based on a conglomerate of recent polling data…

It actually is the least "orange-colored" glasses out there…

Republicans took the house back, it just wasn't this huge crushing victory that some people expected.

I'm trying to figure out what Biden had done as president. Has he done anything to help the country? Anything? And freebies and handouts don't count for anything in my book. Can't see how anyone could vote for that.

Just looked up the 2022 Nevada senate race, Adam Laxalt lost by 8k votes

Looks like the Harry Reid cheat machine is almost dead.

In reply to NoahAg

NoahAg said:

---

FireAg said:

---

The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:

If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:

At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...

---

LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.

---

LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.

In reply to Some Junkie Cosmonaut The threat to their "right" to crush little baby skulls with forceps, extract them from the womb, and toss them in the trash is why we need more Biden.

The only votes that matter, come in at 3:00 AM!

In reply to Some Junkie Cosmonaut

Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

FireAg said:

---

The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:

If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:

At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...

---

LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.

---

LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.

---

This isn't about who deserves to win. This is about the reality we live in. After what we've seen the last 8 years, to assume Trump will win AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI, and MI is about as delusional as believing the Ags are going 14-0 every year.

In reply to NoahAg

NoahAg said:

---

Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

FireAg said:

---

The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:

If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:

At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...

---

LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.

---

LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.

---

This isn't about who deserves to win. This is about the reality we live in. After what we've seen the last 8 years, to assume Trump will win AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI, and MI is about as delusional as believing the Ags are going 14-0 every year.

---

Is this then locked in stone? The republicans can never win again because of AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI and MI?

In reply to NoahAg

NoahAg said:

---

Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:

---

NoahAg said:

---

FireAg said:

---

The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:

If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:

At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...

---

LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.

---

LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.

---

This isn't about who deserves to win. This is about the reality we live in. After what we've seen the last 8 years, to assume Trump will win AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI, and MI is about as delusional as believing the Ags are going 14-0 every year.

---

RFK will single handily win AZ, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina for Trump. Margins are too small in those states to overcome him for the Dems.

Nevada would be the only one I would second guess, Trump lost by 20~30k cannot remember. But Nevada has been slowly moving right since Reid died and Laxhalt lost by 8k.

In reply to FireAg

FireAg said:

---

The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:

If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:

At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...

---

This map based on current polling is the point of the OP here I believe. Pre-2018 GOP used to pretty regularly overperform polling. Since 2018 and especially 2022, they have underperformed.

Over performance of a poll is typically indicative of well run party apparatus on the ground(See Florida).

There are red flags in the GOP except in FL and maybe a few safe GOP places right now. Even in Texas there have been some losses or closer than normal races where there should not be in the last couple of cycles.

Perhaps it's all figured out, but the GOP is showing signs of organizational issues across the country at the moment. Seems that part of it is candidate recruitment and the eventual primary winners not being strong candidates for a general. Part of it is ground game disarray. One of those two things can put victory in jeopardy. Both of things most certainly puts a lot of weight on just old fashioned inclination to vote for a party over a candidate. Or inclination to vote against a party vs for a candidate.

Polls can take a pulse from registered and likely voters re: how they really feel, but they don't account for the lack of anti-fraud controls and accountability in our corrupt system or the level of funding provided to harvesting ("fortifying") operations in the big urban areas.

There's still too much time for leftists to take out any one, two, or maybe even all three of Trump, Biden, and RFKjr. With Trump assassinated or in prison, Biden's family paid off for him to step down and check into an assisted living facility for Alzheimer patients... things can change quickly.