In reply to JayM

JayM said:

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NoahAg said:

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Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:

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NoahAg said:

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FireAg said:

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The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:

If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:

At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...

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LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.

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LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.

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This isn't about who deserves to win. This is about the reality we live in. After what we've seen the last 8 years, to assume Trump will win AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI, and MI is about as delusional as believing the Ags are going 14-0 every year.

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Is this then locked in stone? The republicans can never win again because of AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI and MI?

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I won't say "never" but certainly not all 6 in 2024. Remember the "red wave" of 2022? Me neither, b/c it didn't happen. Biden is terrible but the Trump hate is very strong.

Even dems who don't like biden will walk over hot coals to vote against Trump. "Blue no matter who" is a real thing. Not to mention ballot harvesting, mail in ballots, dead voters, etc.

I don't think people listen to the news much anymore. Streaming has eliminated most commercials and news and people just don't care. Unless something drastic happens, ie Floyd, COVID, Protest events, I could see 24 swinging again. What concerns me is the rhetoric after the swing. It will make the summer of 2020 look like a small blimp.

In reply to NoahAg

NoahAg said:

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JayM said:

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NoahAg said:

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Some Junkie Cosmonaut said:

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NoahAg said:

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FireAg said:

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The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:

If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:

At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...

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LOL, those are some orange colored glasses for sure.

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LOL, share with the class why you think Biden deserves to be reelected.

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This isn't about who deserves to win. This is about the reality we live in. After what we've seen the last 8 years, to assume Trump will win AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI, and MI is about as delusional as believing the Ags are going 14-0 every year.

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Is this then locked in stone? The republicans can never win again because of AZ, NV, PA, GA, WI and MI?

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I won't say "never" but certainly not all 6 in 2024. Remember the "red wave" of 2022? Me neither, b/c it didn't happen. Biden is terrible but the Trump hate is very strong.

Even dems who don't like biden will walk over hot coals to vote against Trump. "Blue no matter who" is a real thing. Not to mention ballot harvesting, mail in ballots, dead voters, etc.

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Some of those races were pretty close right?

In reply to Funky Winkerbean

Funky Winkerbean said:

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"Overperformed"

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Is that the new word for cheated?

In the real world I see Trump is up handily still, despite the primary being functionally over and doom predictions, in places that will matter;

Trump's Path of Totality

WSJ POLL: Trump Leads Biden in Six of Seven Swing Stateshttps://t.co/ihU5uq2cai

— Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) April 5, 2024

This is also a remarkable piece I highly recommend reading, where RCP's Carl Cannon responds to, of all things, accusation of bias from the pathetic, contemptible very fake news NYT:

The New York Times vs. RealClearPolitics - so well done, by @CarlCannon … https://t.co/c1eDfhd37a

— Andy McCarthy (@AndrewCMcCarthy) April 6, 2024

It's highly entertaining to read his rebuttal to the hit piece. They claimed (among many falsehoods) that RCP was wrong in 2020 in favor of Trump, and that they have a bias in favor of him in their aggregate polls. Money graff:

Quote:

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The RCP Poll Average
In his email informing Bevan of the story he was writing, Peters said he was looking into RCP's election analyses on the grounds that they "tended to skew toward or favor Trump." He said he was focusing on the RCP Polling Averages, "which your competitors have questioned for including Rasmussen, Trafalgar and others."

This complaint doesn't withstand scrutiny either. First, to the degree the RCP Poll Averages favored one candidate over the other, they favored the Democrat Joe Biden more than the Republican Donald Trump. Second, in the seven closest states in the 2020 election those decided by three percentage points or less the RCP Poll Averages were demonstrably more accurate than the New York Times' own poll, and it wasn't even close.

As you can see from the chart below, in five of the seven battleground states in 2020, the Times was off by more than four points in Biden's favor. By contrast, the error in the RCP Poll Average in those seven states was only 1.47 points and the only reason it was that high was because the polls in Wisconsin were terribly off, including a final one by Washington Post/ABC News showing Biden leading by 17 points and one by the New York Times itself showing Biden with an 11-point lead. Subtract out Wisconsin and the error of the RCP Poll Averages in six remaining battleground states in 2020 was 0.72 points.

Take special note of Pennsylvania, the state singled out by the Times. As the chart shows, the RCP average in the Keystone State was, well, perfect. It had Biden leading Trump by 1.2 percentage points. When the votes were tallied, Biden won by … 1.2 percentage points.

RealClearPolitics also offered a feature called the "no toss-ups" map in which the Electoral College votes are assigned to whichever candidate was leading in the RCP average. Our map had the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris winning 319 electoral votes compared to 219 for Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence, very close to the final total.

You can go down a rabbit hole very quickly when parsing these numbers, so I'll make two final points before moving on.

First, a discerning reader who followed the RCP averages in 2020 would have concluded both that Joe Biden held a larger lead in the national popular vote than Hillary Clinton had four years earlier and that in the battleground states where the election would be decided the race was tight, meaning that Trump prevailing in the Electoral College was a real possibility, just as it had been in 2016.

Second when all the votes were finally counted, it was clear that the polls touted by RCP's critics were significantly less accurate than the ones they criticized. Their preferred polls were unfailingly too pro-Democratic. Was this due to incompetence? Inadvertent bias? Something else? Examining that question would have made for an interesting story. Instead, the New York Times just pretended none of it happened and disparaged a competitor.

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The ballot harvesters will be churning

In reply to Reno Hightower

Reno Hightower said:

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The ballot harvesters will be churning

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Yes they will and I've yet to hear how the R's plan to battle that problem. Perhaps they have no plan.

In reply to Rockdoc

Rockdoc said:

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Reno Hightower said:

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The ballot harvesters will be churning

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Yes they will and I've yet to hear how the R's plan to battle that problem. Perhaps they have no plan.

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I think some states like TX and GA (maybe AZ?) had state houses that actually passed some election integrity laws to at least try to make the untraceable ez fraud jokes of elections slightly less easy to defraud. Other states like PA and MI might be too far past the Gone as their state houses are all in on being a banana republic to support the marxist regime. An ID that proves the person voting is the person who is registered to vote is racist voter suppression because baby killing is far too important, which unfortunately means some former purple swing states may have become forever deep blue already.

An Emerson College poll of 1,438 registered voters, conducted from April 2 to 3, put Trump at 43 percent against 42 percent for Biden and 8 percent for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

In a straight head-to-head with all other candidates and undecided voters removed, the Republican challenger had 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for the Democratic incumbent. However, among very likely voters, Biden is ahead 51 to 49, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

A YouGov survey, conducted for The Economist, had Trump and Biden tied at 43 percent each with Kennedy Jr. third at 2 percent. This survey of 1,601 registered voters took place between March 30 and April 2.

Meanwhile, two surveys by Morning Consult and Big Village at the end of March both gave Biden a two-point lead over his challenger and according to Polymarket, an online prediction platform where users can bet on world events, Biden's odds of victory in November has increased substantially since February.

We all told you so...

In reply to LMCane Yougov, LOL. Still not tired of winning. And the lawfare insanity is just going to give more folks pause to even consider voting for the other option ever again.

In reply to nortex97 But he likes his polls better! Lol

In reply to LMCane

LMCane said:

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However, among very likely voters, Biden is ahead

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among the 3am mailed in ballot drop offs, Biden is way ahead

In reply to LMCane In a totally legit election, no way the vegetable wins. At least he's got your vote.

I can only think of a few reasons to vote for whoever is handling the lying, corrupt, racist, incoherent, senile rapist pedophile empty suit. They fit generally two categories and it can be hard to decipher on a message board which category some of the Biden supporters fall into. I think most are in category #2 because Pavda fake news has programmed the masses with uncurable TDS.

1. you're a communist that hates America and everything it once stood for, hate the idea of the American dream and land of opportunity based on hard work and merit and want to see its continued destruction. You hate capitalism, religion, family, free speech, safety and security. Identity politics groups are everything and individuals are nothing. Foreign interests are more important to you than Americans'. Venezuela gave us the blueprint; we just need to keep following it to a tee like Biden's handlers have been. It's going swimmingly because when we finish destroying this experiment and build back better into a communist utopia, everyone will be happy.

2. you're a useful idiot completely brainwashed to think a Marxist regime destroying America is the best choice because the propaganda has worked. You're convinced that because the opposition doesn't want you to murder babies at will, a full on Marxist regime is better. You're convinced that the party that wants smaller government, a less burdensome tax and regulatory environment to spur growth and investment here, and to put Americans' interests above foreign, globalist, and elitists' special interests is led by literally orange Hitler and orange Hitler is going to put everyone in gulags as dictator. You're convinced that fair elections would be racist voter suppression because black people can't get IDs. You're convinced that big government will solve every problem if they just keep spending trillions and if they ever stop wasting trillions, the earth will stop spinning. All government has to do is keep raising taxes on the few people left who still earn money and it won't have the same results as Venezuela because... reasons. You're convinced that inflation is a good thing. You're convinced that crime is down and jobs are up and Bidenomics is amazing. You're convinced we needed 10 million unvetted migrants from over 180 different countries to waltz on in here unfettered in less than 3 years because we need people to pick fruits and vegetables and our border is secure.

Quote:

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College-educated white men:

• 2024: Biden +21; 2020: Trump +3 (net change: Biden +24)

College-educated white voters overall:

• 2024: Biden +24; 2020: Biden +3 (net change: Biden +21)

College-educated white women:

• 2024: Biden +28; 2020: Biden +9 (net change: Biden +19)

Over 45:

• 2024: Biden +6; 2020: Trump +3 (net change: Biden +9)

Under 45:

• 2024: Trump +1; 2020: Biden +14 (net change: Trump +15)

Independents:

• 2024: Trump +7; 2020: Biden +13 (net change: Trump +20)

Nonwhite:

• 2024: Biden +11; 2020: Biden +45 (net change: Trump +34)

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https://www.npr.org/2024/04/07/1243264831/key-voting-groups-are-shifting-in-the-race-between-biden-and-trump

I don't put a lot of faith in polls, but that is interesting.

In reply to GeorgiAg I mean, it's NPR.

I've posted links from Tass, too, so admit that's fair, but really…you take it for what it is.

In reply to LMCane

LMCane said:

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An Emerson College poll of 1,438 registered voters, conducted from April 2 to 3, put Trump at 43 percent against 42 percent for Biden and 8 percent for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

In a straight head-to-head with all other candidates and undecided voters removed, the Republican challenger had 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for the Democratic incumbent. However, among very likely voters, Biden is ahead 51 to 49, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

A YouGov survey, conducted for The Economist, had Trump and Biden tied at 43 percent each with Kennedy Jr. third at 2 percent. This survey of 1,601 registered voters took place between March 30 and April 2.

Meanwhile, two surveys by Morning Consult and Big Village at the end of March both gave Biden a two-point lead over his challenger and according to Polymarket, an online prediction platform where users can bet on world events, Biden's odds of victory in November has increased substantially since February.

We all told you so...

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In other words, within the margins of errors in states that matter for both sides and turnout for each candidate in those states is vitally important.

Just like in:
2020
2016
2012
2000


There is one key difference this time though. Trump was never this close at this point in the races of 2016 and 2020. The Dems should be worried and hopeful that something happens this summer to at least get them back to the norm by Sept. Once Trump starts focusing on the states with close margins it will be interesting to see what happens.

Also, he's doing really well in Nevada. That's something new.

You're wasting you time looking at a single poll taken at a single time…

Need to look at polling AVERAGES made up of different polling sources taken at similar times…

Any single poll can tell you what you want to hear…the reality is in the averages…

In reply to GeorgiAg

GeorgiAg said:

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Quote:

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College-educated white men:

• 2024: Biden +21; 2020: Trump +3 (net change: Biden +24)

College-educated white voters overall:

• 2024: Biden +24; 2020: Biden +3 (net change: Biden +21)

College-educated white women:

• 2024: Biden +28; 2020: Biden +9 (net change: Biden +19)

Over 45:

• 2024: Biden +6; 2020: Trump +3 (net change: Biden +9)

Under 45:

• 2024: Trump +1; 2020: Biden +14 (net change: Trump +15)

Independents:

• 2024: Trump +7; 2020: Biden +13 (net change: Trump +20)

Nonwhite:

• 2024: Biden +11; 2020: Biden +45 (net change: Trump +34)

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https://www.npr.org/2024/04/07/1243264831/key-voting-groups-are-shifting-in-the-race-between-biden-and-trump

I don't put a lot of faith in polls, but that is interesting.

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When I saw this the other day, I was baffled.

This tells me college educated whites, got absolutely nothing from college, minus getting dumber

Wonder how he does with Uneducated Whites? I think I saw something where Trump only has a 3 pt advantage there, which would be big turn, huge turn

Is there any polls that only do one race, to get a more accurate number on each group?

In reply to LMCane

LMCane said:

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An Emerson College poll of 1,438 registered voters, conducted from April 2 to 3, put Trump at 43 percent against 42 percent for Biden and 8 percent for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

In a straight head-to-head with all other candidates and undecided voters removed, the Republican challenger had 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for the Democratic incumbent. However, among very likely voters, Biden is ahead 51 to 49, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

A YouGov survey, conducted for The Economist, had Trump and Biden tied at 43 percent each with Kennedy Jr. third at 2 percent. This survey of 1,601 registered voters took place between March 30 and April 2.

Meanwhile, two surveys by Morning Consult and Big Village at the end of March both gave Biden a two-point lead over his challenger and according to Polymarket, an online prediction platform where users can bet on world events, Biden's odds of victory in November has increased substantially since February.

We all told you so...

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Check out the latest Rasmussen poll, they usually have better approval numbers for Biden, it stays around 45% approval

they have Biden losing by 8 pts

Polls are all over the place and like I said earlier, I do not take them too seriously

Kennedy hurts Trump in one or two swing states, but the others, he hurts Biden by a lot.

Trump will not win the popular vote and that is expected, so any poll with Trump ahead is a bad sign for Biden. He should be ahead by an average of 3 or more in the national

In reply to GeorgiAg

GeorgiAg said:

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Quote:

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College-educated white men:

• 2024: Biden +21; 2020: Trump +3 (net change: Biden +24)

College-educated white voters overall:

• 2024: Biden +24; 2020: Biden +3 (net change: Biden +21)

College-educated white women:

• 2024: Biden +28; 2020: Biden +9 (net change: Biden +19)

Over 45:

• 2024: Biden +6; 2020: Trump +3 (net change: Biden +9)

Under 45:

• 2024: Trump +1; 2020: Biden +14 (net change: Trump +15)

Independents:

• 2024: Trump +7; 2020: Biden +13 (net change: Trump +20)

Nonwhite:

• 2024: Biden +11; 2020: Biden +45 (net change: Trump +34)

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https://www.npr.org/2024/04/07/1243264831/key-voting-groups-are-shifting-in-the-race-between-biden-and-trump

I don't put a lot of faith in polls, but that is interesting.

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This doesn't make any sense because Trump wins married men handily and even wins married women. It wasn't separated by race though.

When the Dems start talking about seizing retirement funds over a certain amount there will be a shift by these crazy white folk. You would think handicapping their kids because of their race/sex (i.e., their sons) would be enough.

In reply to 2023NCAggies

2023NCAggies said:

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Polls are all over the place and like I said earlier, I do not take them too seriously

Kennedy hurts Trump in one or two swing states, but the others, he hurts Biden by a lot.

Trump will not win the popular vote and that is expected, so any poll with Trump ahead is a bad sign for Biden. He should be ahead by an average of 3 or more in the national

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This is pretty spot-on based on what the RCP averages have been showing...

In reply to GeorgiAg

GeorgiAg said:

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Quote:

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College-educated white men:

• 2024: Biden +21; 2020: Trump +3 (net change: Biden +24)

College-educated white voters overall:

• 2024: Biden +24; 2020: Biden +3 (net change: Biden +21)

College-educated white women:

• 2024: Biden +28; 2020: Biden +9 (net change: Biden +19)

Over 45:

• 2024: Biden +6; 2020: Trump +3 (net change: Biden +9)

Under 45:

• 2024: Trump +1; 2020: Biden +14 (net change: Trump +15)

Independents:

• 2024: Trump +7; 2020: Biden +13 (net change: Trump +20)

Nonwhite:

• 2024: Biden +11; 2020: Biden +45 (net change: Trump +34)

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https://www.npr.org/2024/04/07/1243264831/key-voting-groups-are-shifting-in-the-race-between-biden-and-trump

I don't put a lot of faith in polls, but that is interesting.

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Sticking with Biden you are obviously.

In reply to LMCane You are repeating yourself.

In reply to LMCane

LMCane said:

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An Emerson College poll of 1,438 registered voters, conducted from April 2 to 3, put Trump at 43 percent against 42 percent for Biden and 8 percent for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

In a straight head-to-head with all other candidates and undecided voters removed, the Republican challenger had 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for the Democratic incumbent. However, among very likely voters, Biden is ahead 51 to 49, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

A YouGov survey, conducted for The Economist, had Trump and Biden tied at 43 percent each with Kennedy Jr. third at 2 percent. This survey of 1,601 registered voters took place between March 30 and April 2.

Meanwhile, two surveys by Morning Consult and Big Village at the end of March both gave Biden a two-point lead over his challenger and according to Polymarket, an online prediction platform where users can bet on world events, Biden's odds of victory in November has increased substantially since February.

We all told you so...

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A nation-wide poll is worthless. HTHs

Until I see a poll that can figure in some aspect of vote fraud (and that's probably not possible) they're all pretty unreliable to me. No matter which side you're on, polls don't mean much right now.

In reply to 2023NCAggies

2023NCAggies said:

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GeorgiAg said:

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Quote:

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College-educated white men:

• 2024: Biden +21; 2020: Trump +3 (net change: Biden +24)

College-educated white voters overall:

• 2024: Biden +24; 2020: Biden +3 (net change: Biden +21)

College-educated white women:

• 2024: Biden +28; 2020: Biden +9 (net change: Biden +19)

Over 45:

• 2024: Biden +6; 2020: Trump +3 (net change: Biden +9)

Under 45:

• 2024: Trump +1; 2020: Biden +14 (net change: Trump +15)

Independents:

• 2024: Trump +7; 2020: Biden +13 (net change: Trump +20)

Nonwhite:

• 2024: Biden +11; 2020: Biden +45 (net change: Trump +34)

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https://www.npr.org/2024/04/07/1243264831/key-voting-groups-are-shifting-in-the-race-between-biden-and-trump

I don't put a lot of faith in polls, but that is interesting.

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When I saw this the other day, I was baffled.

This tells me college educated whites, got absolutely nothing from college, minus getting dumber

Wonder how he does with Uneducated Whites? I think I saw something where Trump only has a 3 pt advantage there, which would be big turn, huge turn

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"College educated" includes Baristas working at Starbucks with Women's Studies degrees. People making over $100K per year went for Trump by a large margin.

In reply to TAMU1990

Quote:

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When the Dems start talking about seizing retirement funds over a certain amount there will be a shift by these crazy white folk. You would think handicapping their kids because of their race/sex (i.e., their sons) would be enough.

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LOL, talk about some issues the Dems will absolutely not even be whispering about at the DNC this summer.

They won't discuss that until well past the election, if they 'win' and then it would be dropped like how Obama dropped Obamacare on the country after not campaigning at all on the need to move to communist medicine.

Why Biden is losing young voters:

Quote:

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As I have written several times, with low unemployment, a (somehow) still-growing economy, and an unpopular rival candidate, Joe Biden ought to be breezing to a relatively easy re-election. But he continues to trail Trump. (Leave aside for separate treatment why the top line economic numbers are misleading. . .)

Check out this chart from Bloomberg:

Bloomberg translates what this means in terms of votes as follows:

Quote:

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Trump is currently leading the president 47% to 40% with voters 18-34 in swing states, according to a March Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. By contrast, Biden won 61% of voters under 30 last cycle.

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Devastating.

I think we all know that Trump doesn't have a chance in November. The Dem's will find a way to win.

In reply to agAngeldad

agAngeldad said:

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I don't think people listen to the news much anymore. Streaming has eliminated most commercials and news and people just don't care. Unless something drastic happens, ie Floyd, COVID, Protest events, I could see 24 swinging again. What concerns me is the rhetoric after the swing. It will make the summer of 2020 look like a small blimp.

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This. I don't watch Fox News anymore because they don't have a streaming option. Oh well.

In reply to mlb87

mlb87 said:

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I think we all know that Trump doesn't have a chance in November. The Dem's will find a way to win.

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I don't "know" that at all...

I have been saying for almost a year now that the cheat will be harder if the race is outside most polling MOE's...

If it is within polling MOE's in November, then game on...just like 2020...

In reply to Rockdoc

Rockdoc said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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Rockdoc said:

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If Trump COULD have learned how to control his social media and control his mouth, he'd be president right now.

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I think that had "some" to do with it. I think he should have definitely won Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin

I think he lost those by a combined 56k votes.

But how many of those votes were fraudulent?

Trump got around 8 million more votes than he did in 2016, so his mouth didn't turn many voters away. Bigger question is how much did the Dems cheat to get to 81 million and was that the main reason?

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The dems cheated "just enough" to win. That's why all the delays and pipe bursting, etc. my point was if trump had been totally civil they wouldn't have been able to cheat that much.

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Is this the election version of "Well if she didn't dress like that she wouldn't be raped?"

Your point is that sedition and treason are ok if one side (specifically the left) REALLY doesn't like the other side's candidate.

Once the national poll stories have had a few weeks to percolate out in the public arena, Trump is done.

Why?

Once the narrative has been written that PedoJoe has a lead in polls, they're locking that **** stain in the basement again, and there's absolutely NO CHANCE of Trump being allowed to goad him into getting on stage and exposing his mush brain.

Short of nuclear wars or biden having a massive stroke on live TV, this race is over before it got around the first turn. Argue with me all you want, but it's better to brace for the inevitable than to grasp at hope.

This country is in Stage 4 diagnosis, and half of the *******s in America are going to vote for the cancer to keep growing.