Hypothetical: what would happen if Texas decided to secede from the union?

3,991 Views | 128 Replies | Last: 10 yr ago by SapperAg
SapperAg
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AG
quote:
Not to mention we have the largest Army base right in the middle of our state that we could seize, among several other Air Force bases and Army bases.


Oh, PLEASE try and seize Fort Hood. That would be hilarious to watch.
Stive
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AG
quote:
quote:
Not to mention we have the largest Army base right in the middle of our state that we could seize, among several other Air Force bases and Army bases.


Oh, PLEASE try and seize Fort Hood. That would be hilarious to watch.

When I read that comment, I was about to quote and reply almost this EXACT same thing. Yes, please, walk me through your scenario where we, with no armor, Air Force, etc., attempt to "seize" this largest base with deer rifles, a smattering of AR-15s and some 9mm's.

[This message has been edited by Stive (edited 3/22/2014 10:31p).]
TheCougarHunter
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AG
Obviously it would have to be a planned surprise attack and no it's not out of the question...one freakin doctor with a PISTOL was able to take out over 40 people at Ft Hood...these military bases aren't very well guarded when all the guns and ammunition are locked up in an armory.

[This message has been edited by TheCougarHunter (edited 3/23/2014 4:13a).]
SapperAg
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AG
Slightly different situation. Hassan wasn't pulling his stunt in the motor pool surrounded by Bradleys and Abrams.
SapperAg
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AG
Oh, and for the record, you'll have, on average, a total of a brigade armed every day and using the ranges. That's Palladins, Abrams, Bradleys, infantry, Apaches, etc., armed with combat loads. Good luck. I'll have my popcorn waiting.
Aggies Revenge
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AG
I pretty sure Ft Hood would be well alerted to any attempt to seize it prior to the actual move to do it. There would be no way for a large enough group to gather, arm, and prepare to take the post over without someone running their mouth. Plus the second a signature is placed on any articles of secession the post will go on lock down and start preparing. Pretty much every Texan in the military will find themselves sequestered and removed from duty (and lets face it, if you are from Texas and are in the military EVERYBODY around you knows it.)
Stive
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AG
quote:
Obviously it would have to be a planned surprise attack and no it's not out of the question...one freakin doctor with a PISTOL was able to take out over 40 people at Ft Hood...these military bases aren't very well guarded when all the guns and ammunition are locked up in an armory

People that fail at logic will fail at logic. By your logic a post of 80,000+ soldiers can be taken by about 2,000 because one man on a suicide mission took out 40 guys. Gotcha. Let me know how that works out.

The post above nails it. To have ANY chance of surprise, attacking Hood would have to be your opening move....without them having any reason to be on alert. So by opening move, I mean, before secession, before discussions of secession, before any of your local deer rifle co-op is mobilized or trained. Which means, that you will have attacked an active military base..,.on US soil..... If you don't think that wouldn't bring down the wrath of the entire remaining military, and create some serious angst towards the subsequent push for secession, I honestly think you're living in a fantasy land.

The follow up to a move like that would annihilate whatever semblance of an army you had formed.
Broseph
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AG
Yep, which is why the only way for a secession to occur is if Texas attempted to do it peacefully and would have to have at least 51% popular vote. Let the US go on the offensive and get aggressive. Publish the images of the US military attempting to squash a peaceful state that only wants to pursue its dreams. That will bring the south and even other countries against it.

Love living in a free country. We can talk secession and treason and not get jailed for it! Why did we want to secede again?
aalan94
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My two cents:

First things first. I'm about the most proud Texan on the planet, but I'm also a member of the U.S. military.

For this to happen, it would need to be under extreme circumstances that do not exist today. The only way it would work is if the military was divided or even hostile to the federal government. Members of the military take an oath to the constitution. The only conceivable scenario for them to switch allegiances or even stay neutral is if the constitution has been violated, and something more blatant and extreme than Obamacare.

This would never happen in a vacuum, and it would have to be in response to a serious constitutional crisis in which better alternatives were non-existent.

As to the statement that the people of Texas would not go for this, Huisache especially should know that in 1833, shortly after the disturbance between William B. Travis and Juan Davis Bradburn, there was zero, and I repeat zero support for independence from Mexico. However, by the end of 1835, the population of Texas was almost unanimous in support of independence.

The same scenario played out in the American revolution. Political crises often move fast.

The way this could happen is if a fast-moving crisis (the only thing big enough I can imagine is gun confiscation, which right now is inconceivable) or some kind of economic crisis of large magnitude (U.S. economic collapse triggered by debt default, but even that's a stretch). Texas meets some of the pre-existing conditions. We're economically strong and we have an independent mindset.

This would never happen under the current status quo, but as noted, the status quo could change.

Personally, of course, my preference is for California/Oregon/Washington to secede, New York and the Northeast to secede, and Texas to become the defacto capital of the remaining U.S.
BurnetAggie99
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Like I said earlier if Texas was to secede, the US Marines be short one Marine. Now granted I've been in the reserves the last 14 years after I did 4 years of active service. I can tell you that 95% of the Marines in my reserve unit would also be gone and align with Texas.
WestAustinAg
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AG
If in 50 years the cultural and political differences between Texas and the rest of the US have worsened (or broadened) I dont think it is out of the question that Texas could secede from the US.

I think some of the same sentiment that happened with A&M moving to the SEC would happen on a broader scale for a Texas secession.

-Many of the cultural elite on the coasts would adopt a "good riddance" attitude.

-Southern States would adopt a posture of sympathy if not actively support it (thinking that they may have to do the same thing).

-Many of US biggest detractors would politicize and embarrass the US if it tried to hold a territory like Texas when it supported separatist attempts in dozens of countries around the world. For instance Obama admin is now nominally "neutral" i/r/t the UK's hold on the Falklands. US is neutral on Scotland's potential secession as well. "Self-determination!"

-Mexico and many central and south American countries would probably be receptive to a new, friendlier neighbor that would be much more reliant on Mexican trade. Especially if they knew that a independent Texas would have none of the immigration policies of the US. Mexico might surmise that it could quickly dominate Texas with a mix of trade and politics that are heavily influenced by its immigrants. "Viva la Mexico!"

-The US might really react much in the way the Ukraine is reacting to losing Crimea since this Crimea is a major developer and exporter of energy. But it might also sense that the only way to preserve its access to energy is to go easy on the secession and develop stronger ties via treaties and trade agreements.

In summary, over time Texas could attempt to do what Scotland is trying this summer and French Quebec attempted a decade ago. Embarrass, cajole and negotiate a peaceful secession.

[This message has been edited by WestAustinAg (edited 4/3/2014 3:13p).]
The Original AG 76
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AG
We are a LONG way from the critical mass we saw in 1861. BUT
It could happen. I see it as an economic driven event vs anything else. It is quite possible that we could see huge and onerous taxes and brutal econimic burdens placed on Texas and other productive low tax states in order t save the bi-coastal disasters that are almost guaranteed. Detroit is nothing but a roadmap for most yankee cities. Calif cities are wallowing in massive union inspaired debt and show no signs of waking up. Public sector union are the greatest threat to our nation since the British in 1812 and there is NOTHING on the horrizon that tells me that the locals that bred these parasites have any intention of reining them in. On eday the feds will have to attack our prosperity in order to save the "utopias" the have bred on the coasts.
Couple this with high profile attacks like federal gun control, forced unionism via card check and the other liberal idiocys that are so popular on the coasts and we could see a HUGE demand for separation by not just Texas but by the productive areas of this failing nation.
Spider69
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AG
Is succession better than a division into five states with 10 senators instead of just 2, plus possibly a few more in congress?
SapperAg
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Once again, broad generalizations about the economic prospects of this country that only privilege the information you want to see says nothing about the actual circumstances going forward. Detroit has a unique set of problems. This may be shocking for you to hear, but the overwhelming number of "Yankee" cities are not under that level of stress. Texas has its own problems moving forward as well. I could paint a picture of water disasters, or a sudden plummet in energy values. Both of which have profound historical precedent. Texas needs the United States now just as much as the US needs Texas. And despite the happy-go-lucky picture painted in the previous post, other nations are going to be PISSED if there is significant disruption to the strength and economy of this nation. We are the lynchpin to the world economy. If Texas ruptures that pin, well, don't expect a warm welcome from anyone not named Iran or Russia.
Stive
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AG
Even Detroit is beginning to stabilize in some ways. They regressed heavily, but according to most reports they're beginning to level out (if they haven't already). They still have budget/infrastructure issues due to not contracting enough as their tax base shrank, but according to business conversations originating there they'll start to reign that in in the next 5 years or so.

Not that that has anything to do with Texas seceding, just felt like sticking that in there. There are some interesting stories about new businesses investing in downtown Detroit because of the cheapness of RE there right now; they're starting to see a little bump in businesses moving in as opposed to moving out. If it's able to be salvaged and survive it will be a pretty wild tale of reversed fortunes.

[This message has been edited by Stive (edited 4/5/2014 2:55p).]
huisachel
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I am 66 yo and am certain the cultural differences between Texas and the US have narrowed in the last fifty years, not widened.

Most people in other states don't have the great affinity for their home states that Texans have always had and consider themselves Americans and little else. Pride in being from Indiana does not cause someone from there to entertain thoughts about how great it would be if INdianapolis was the capital of an independent nation. The same is true for most modern Texans.

Independence is a pipedream.

jja79
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Wha would happen? You mean after Spanish becoming the official language ?
huisachel
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Most Hispanic texans don't speak Spanish and resent the way Mexicans look down on them. When we travel in the interior my tejana makes me do all the talking because the Mexicans like hearing a guero at least try to use their language
commando2004
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I can't think of a realistic scenario in which Texas secedes without at least a dozen other states attempting the same.
Broseph
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I agree, I would think the SE states would at least try to secede if we did.
fishnvet
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I'm a native Texan, but I'd only agree to secede if the SE states go too. If they don't, I don't want to be stuck in a Texas-only conference back with the sips again.

The t shirts could say, "you can't spell secede without SEC"
TRADUCTOR
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If we need the SE states WE conquer THEM
Broseph
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There are plenty of folks out there that are fed up with the federal government and its increasing encroachment on our liberties. Give it 10 more years of heading the way our country is heading and situation like linked below could easily spiral out of control.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/10/us/nevada-rancher-rangers-cattle-showdown/?c=&page=0
DE4D
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quote:
41%, or over 3.3 million people in Texas voted for Obama in 2012.

Do you really think they would quietly let the state break away from the US? This state (and all the others) are nowhere close to being able to peacefully secede.

compare the 1860 election results to 2012.



Sweet, their exodus will immediately relieve pressure from our utility infrastructure and reduce needs for public services allowing the working population to thrive, and hire cheaper harder working Labour from mexico. We can bring back indentured servitude?

Seriously though, Texas today is the only state that could successfully succeed for one very important reason, our power grid is not intertwined with any other region, with the exception of outflow going over the LA border in direct current. Other states are grouped in regional grids and could easily be switched off and brought to heel quickly.
SapperAg
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Do you really think Texas is an island unto itself? It's far more integrated into this nation's economy than you want to admit.
 
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