I think in 10 years this Chelsea squad is going to be an incredibly interesting case study.
Boehly basically came into a club in crisis and tried to throw a bunch of money around in the first window to put out the fires. That's where we see the vast amount of missteps - Koulibaly, Cucu's fee, Auba, Fofana's massive wages.
Once the structure got put into place, however, the vision crystallized and everything since that first window (and the Potter calamity) has been building towards that vision. We've basically been playing FM in real life. Where most squads get turned over along the course of a few seasons, Boehly has basically done the same in two transfer windows. The incomings are insane sure, but the outgoings are equally impressive. We've essentially wiped the slate clean from 2 years ago and have an entirely new squad.
Lets talk about that new squad. We've cut our wage bill massively, by something like 50m pounds, and that's before shifting on Lukaku. All of our new signings (bar Fofana and Cucu) are on relatively low base wages, with heavy incentive driven contracts. We have the youngest squad age in the PL by almost a full year - despite rostering one of the oldest players in the league in Thiago Silva. That average age will only get younger when we finalize the Lavia and Washington signings. All of those young players are signed for between 6-9 years. Their low base wages means that they shouldn't be impossible to move (like Ross Barkley's wages were) if they don't reach their full potential down the road. We've basically bought only young, high potential players that fit our tactical profiles - like I said, FM in real life. We've locked them up through the extent of their prime years - ideally they grow alongside the club. This meshes well with the multi-club model (a scourge on the sport but likely a necessary evil to maintain competitiveness in the long run - hell even Brighton and Palace own other clubs).
Financially we are in a healthy position, despite the naysayers. At the moment I think we're actually still in the black for this window - but we will likely end somewhere between 40-80m in the red. Ultimately it's not a problem. Even under FFP, we're allowed to take on losses of up to 90m a year if the club is financially healthy - and we are.
The downside to this aggressive spending is that we are looking at ~150m pounds in amortized costs for the next 5 years, and roughly ~100m pounds after that. That may impede our ability to spend as aggressively in the future. CL qualification isn't required to avoid administration or anything so severe - but it is crucial to be able to continue positioning ourselves aggressively in the market. Ultimately, the CL benefits will also be partly offset by the salary inflation/achieved contract incentives. Will we be able to spend like this in years going forward? No, obviously not. But our spending in years going forward will likely look a lot more like our Casadei/Santos type signings, and not Caicedo/Lavia signings. That's not to say we won't sprinkle in big signings here and there - but that there won't be as much of a need for them now that the core of the squad is complete. Also, any future signings will get amortized over 5 years as well, so it hardly prevents future spending - it just means we can't completely brute force the market again.
How else will we make up that shortfall? Reduced wages for a start will mean the club generates a greater profit. Player sales, in part, and the academy's role in this will continue to be important. Increased commercial revenue is a big aspect, however. New sponsor for this season is rumored at 50m, a small increase over our last deal and on relative par with most of our commercial rivals. I expect, however, that our next long term deal will shoot for a figure closer to City's 67m. We'll likely seek to sign that after securing CL qualification. Ownership is committed to redeveloping the Bridge and, once complete, that will significantly increase revenues as well. We have by far the smallest stadium of our peer clubs. We've been making several steps to
acquire land surrounding the bridge in preparation for this.
The financial picture is messy and complicated. But as someone that works on the legal side of private equity, I'm not worried about FFP or PL sustainability rules in the slightest. There are a lot of people, getting paid a lot of money, who are incredibly intelligent getting paid to answer these questions that have far more information than I do. I trust their judgment.
What are the next steps? Incomings: Finalize Lavia (DM), Washington (ST). Sign Olise (CAM/RW). Sign a GK (Mamardashvili?). That would likely complete the squad.
Outgoings: Lukaku, Ziyech, Gallagher, Chalobah(?)
Loans: Casadei to Leicester, Ugochukwa(?), one of Washington or Broja (?), Maatsen?
Kepa will be sold next year after his loan to Madrid ends. I think it's a case of getting off his wages and Kepa not really being much better than much cheaper alternatives that led to this. I'd wager RM is also paying a ~10m pound loan fee for Kepa.
I know we were thinking about keeping Maatsen but he looked incredibly overmatched against Liverpool. I'm hesitant to draw too many conclusions from one appearance but with Olise potentially coming in, that might have been Maatsen's only chance to impress. I'd still keep him long-term unless we got a similar sliding sell-on as with Tino Livramento.
Gallagher definitely gets sold now, although Poch reportedly doesn't want to sell to Tottenham. He's surplus to requirements and doesn't really fit any of the roles of Poch's system. He's a quality player though, and we will likely get 40-60m for him, which counts as pure profit. Chalobah is 5th choice CB and 3rd choice RB so may also find himself on the move.
And in the meantime? I'm incredibly excited. The squad is exceptionally young and chock-full of high potential talents. The Caicedo-Enzo partnership is arguably already the best midfield pair in the league and I think will develop into the best midfield in the world for at least 4-5 years. Talking about profiles, Jackson looks like everything we could possibly want out of a #9 - if the goals come, he will be an incredible bargain. I'm really optimistic about him. My biggest concern will remain health - Nkunku's injury was a huge blow and I'm concerned about goals until he gets back. James and Chilwell are incredible fullbacks but both hugely injury prone. My only other concern is leadership related - we've struggled for leadership in recent years and last year's catastrophe is the best example of that. On the plus side, we've sold or banished all of the problematic egos. However, we are incredibly young and inexperienced - how will we handle a tough stretch? I hope that Silva, James, and Chilwell is enough of a veteran presence alongside Poch to guide us through. Our next 4 games are against relegation candidates - we absolutely need to chalk up max points and put ourselves on the right track for CL qualification.
