Just a reminder don't trust the polls. Republicans crushed it in the RCP average right before the 2022 midterm elections. Here is how much Dems overperformed on elections day Nov 2022.

Democrats overperformed against a slate of epically stupid and awful candidates, against a backdrop of a swath of GOP voters that don't show up to vote because they think every election is rigged. Not very surprising.

I think the OP is counting on this same line of thinking for 2024.

Muh abortion ruling

captkirk said:

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Muh abortion ruling

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people really are poor at remembering the circumstances around 2022 events.

Trump, running very light-pro life is positioned well to not make that same mistake.

lack of anti-fraud controls and ability to trace or vouch cast ballots to or from actual registered voters is what makes polls irrelevant.


interesting the only negative number for Dem overperformance is Rubio in FL.

TRM said:

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Unfortunately, there are still epically stupid and awful candidates running for the GOP in 2024. At least there was one GOP overperformance on that list.

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Yep. Thanks to DeSantis. We do this to ourselves.

policywonk98 said:

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Florida GOP was actually turning things around and was over performing prior to DeSantis. His leadership has just taken it to an even higher level.


I am worried that state GOPs in swing states are in too much disarray to perform at expectations or overperform vs. polling data.


Money seems to be a big issue.

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Geeeee, I wonder why?! GOP....snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Again.

What about the other 2022 elections?

agsalaska said:

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What about the other 2022 elections?

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No idea on specifics but...

we had record inflation and the House is pretty much 50-50 now.

There was no red wave, which was predicted. Demographics and morality in this country have changed significantly.

This! And we have folks who constantly post how dumb republicans are and constantly degrade them. Issue is the republicans can't get anything done cause of thin feathered edge majorities in the house and no majority in the senate…..so all republicans get the blame…..So….many negative Nancie's cause folks to give up and not vote or vote third party or do "write ins" that accomplishes nothing but make some "feel good".
So hey let's not vote for the "weak" Repubs and just hand it all to the democrats…. They are doing such a wonderful job, after all.

Logos Stick said:

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agsalaska said:

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What about the other 2022 elections?

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No idea on specifics but...

we had record inflation and the House is pretty much 50-50 now.

There was no red wave, which was predicted. Demographics and morality in this country have changed significantly.

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It just appears cherry picked to me.


As for the red wave, not really. It was being predicted by Fox, Hannity, Trump, and others.

A lot of professional pollsters were skeptical at best.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/

texagbeliever said:

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captkirk said:

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Muh abortion ruling

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people really are poor at remembering the circumstances around 2022 events.

Trump, running very light-pro life is positioned well to not make that same mistake.

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By now Trump knows his maga will still support him no matter what he says or does, which is why I agree that him being very light pro-life with his wanting to make it a nationwide law that every woman can get n abortion up to 12(?) weeks will only help him. Some in his base won't like it if it comes to fruition, but it's not as if they're not going to continue to support him the way they have for the past decade.

If he can rein himself in with the social-media posts and saying things that turn off independents and CMs, there's no reason that he can't beat Biden. Unless the economy (cheap gas and groceries) is doing significantly better, it's Biden's to lose, especially to a disciplined and pro-choice(ish) Trump.

That's not what's happening at all. People are pointing out that the Republicans are making mistakes. Why is that bad? Why are we all supposed to either sunshine pump or vote Democrat according to this board?

Waffledynamics said:

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Brutal.

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many of us have been warning this exact scenario would occur

texagbeliever said:

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Ag_0112358132134 said:

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Very informative OP. It seems like most people on this board don't realize that this country is about to go irreversibly democrat in both houses of Congress and in the White House. After the next 4 years of complete democrat control, the elections will be so rigged, it won't matter if 90% of the population comes to its senses and starts voting Republican. The left will manufacture the votes they need to maintain control, and anybody questioning it will get a visit from the FBI.

There is not much we can do about it at this point, but everybody needs to be aware so they can plan accordingly.

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This post makes no sense.

Everything is lost if we lose 2024. But instead of a call to do everything you can in 2024 the call is to give up and concede defeat. Quite the loser mentality.

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I'm definitely not advocating that we concede defeat. Everybody should go vote and give it their all.

But pretty much all of the swing states are now controlled by dems, and they will manufacture the votes they need. Republicans haven't made a dent in mail in voting or cleaning up the voter rolls. Even in Texas we have not done nearly enough to ensure a Cruz victory. Obviously everyone should go vote, but it's mostly out of our hands at this point.

Rockdoc said:

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If Trump COULD have learned how to control his social media and control his mouth, he'd be president right now.

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So true. He'd have, easily, gone down as one the greats because perception would be on nothing but what he did, not what he tweeted and said.

ImSoDumb said:

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Just a reminder don't trust the polls. Republicans crushed it in the RCP average right before the 2022 midterm elections. Here is how much Dems overperformed on elections day Nov 2022.

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Well a lot has happened since then. Things have gotten worse.

GOP will win the senate, but probably lose the house. I think Trump wins

The only thing that worries me is cheating... If I knew for a fact that would be no cheating, I would predict a sweep, we would take all three

I'm extremely skeptical that Trump will pull this out. I much prefer him over Biden but think he has too much baggage and legal risk, and the Dems will once again get a heavy turnout from the abortion, black, and forgive-my-college-loan crowds. The Dems have built a party that caters to multiple special interests, and they turn out to vote blue even though they may not agree with the interests of other factions in Team Blue. As long as the Dems support their #1 issue, they will vote for them rain, shine, or dementia.

Trump and his candidates have under-performed the last three elections (2018, 20, 22). I'm struggling to see what's fundamentally changed that moves the needle in his favor. Sure, Biden sucks, but we've known that forever, especially in 2022 when there was supposed to be a "red wave." For every bit of poor economic news, there are offsetting positive points (stock market, wage growth, low unemployment, etc).

Plus, Trump's fundraising has also been tepid compared to Biden, and he'll divert limited R funds to his legal battles instead of supporting the R party at large, diminishing the chances for down ballot R candidates in the general election.

Just being objective here, not subliminally pulling for Biden. Despise the guy and want to see him behind bars where he belongs. But I've learned to remove emotion from business and political assessments, and so far I see a Dem sweep as more likely than a R sweep. Hope like hell I'm wrong.

I disagree. If you read various post over the last year on the PB they are full of Repub name calling and bashing. It's generalized and not pointing out specific mistakes. Many folks have commented that because of that they are not going to vote at all etc.
Not saying folks can't criticize….. but it's usually the same posters pot banging over and over. Do that enough and nobody will give a damn. Playing exactly into the dems hands.
There are many good republicans that work their butts off in the Senate and House…… do we ever hear folks make comments supporting those? Nope…, just the pot bangers….. making it seem all republicans are crap. That's my point sir.
ETA I voted for Trump twice. I did not vote for him in the first primary but did when he got the nomination. I voted for him again in 2020.
I wanted DeSantis this go around. But I will still get out to vote for Trump but more importantly for every republican I can vote for in all national, state, and local offices.
I'm not going to sit home and pout like a little kid and not vote at all because DeSantis is not on the ballot.

ImSoDumb said:

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Just a reminder don't trust the polls. Republicans crushed it in the RCP average right before the 2022 midterm elections. Here is how much Dems overperformed on elections day Nov 2022.

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Username always checks out.

FireAg said:

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The current RCP Electoral College polling averages favor Trump for now...

If you account for toss ups, it looks like this:


If you remove toss ups (meaning you give each candidate the battleground states they currently have a polling lead in), it looks like this:


At this moment, and assuming a fair election, I think Trump has the edge in the upcoming election...

A lot can change between now and then, though...

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At this point as well as everyone knows Trump and Biden for that matter, I can't see anything that would drain Trump support to the other side. He is being railroaded in his court cases in all blue jurisdictions so a negative outcome of any trial is to be expected. A hung jury is the best outcome Trump can hope for in DC and New York.