Not an Astros fan, but I'll chime in. I was already drafting an analysis...
The 4 main issues I see:
Espada doesn't have the experience and wisdom to put together the team. As my boss (Cards fan) says about what he believes is a horrible manager in St.L "The manager manages egos not the lineup card. Any player can fill out the lineup card." Can Espada get everyone headed in the right direction? We'll see.
Lack of depth. Limited prospects and players to draw from in their minors. Injuries are a part of the game. You have to prepare for it and if you don't the problem isn't injuries... it is your inability/unwillingness to prepare for them.
Yanier Diaz. Hitting to a Catcher is what filling out the lineup card is to a manager. I don't know Diaz, but you look at the P struggles and I have to believe he isn't handling the staff well. This may sound dumb, but the fact he is hitting well, likely tells you that he isn't spending enough time on the Pitchers. He has to study the hitters of the day along with the SP and 7+/- RPs and how each should approach the hitter. AND... he needs the P to have the trust in him.
Team talent. I was rooting on the idea of Snell to the Astros and was elated Hader signed. Even more excited at $19M. Without the prospects and now having spent their load... The Astros are kinda stuck fixing things. I had said having Hader and Pressly would be meaningless if the Astros are behind in games.
Chris Young's 1st real move as GM was to court Bochy and bring him in.
Chris Young inserted talent through FA which allowed our minors to build prospects. Inserting Seager and Semien meant Duran, Smith, and Foscue were not starters. Signing Eovaldi, Heaney, Gray, deGrom, allowed guys like Bradford, Dunning, Leiter, et al, to spend more time developing without rushing them.
As much as I wanted CY to sign Monty, the right thing to do was split that money among several players. We're paying Mahle $5.5M and Lorenzen like $4.5M. Monty was expected to get $25M. We now have $15M at the trade deadline we can spend if neither Mahle nor Lorenzen work out.
The big question for Astros fans is... Are Espada and Yanier the guys that can turn the team in the right direction?! If the fans are losing confidence, you can be assured those doubts will creep into the clubhouse. Was signing Hader to $19M a red flag to guys like Pressly, Tucker, and Bregman that it is time to move on?!
For 2025:CBT for MLB at: $241M
Astros CBT at: $149M
That leaves $92M
I believe JV has an Opt for $36M. 1/2 by Houston? Which is better to keep or him walk?!
Pressly has an Option for $14M. You want him back for $14M?!
Arbs:
Valdez ($12M in '24) <- Likely goes up
Tucker ($12M in '24) <- Likely goes up
If the Arbs are flat, you're looking at $56M of the $92 (Net $36M)
Now add your other Arbs and Serfs
FA: Bregman ($30M?)
I think the Hader signing, as would have been Snell, likely rippled through the team and I can't imagine it was taken well. You don't have the cheap minor league prospect/talent to infuse and there are many holes to fill not just in '24... but in '25. And you don't have them to trade.
If this team continues to struggle, you're likely going to see the trade deadline fire-sell.
